Here's the latest installment of "Fezzik Fridays", where LVASports.com's handicapping expert is tackling a different sports-betting-related question each week, for the duration of the football season.
Probably the best evidence I can give is my own "official releases" in football on the LVASports.com message boards. Frankly, I've struggled mightily to pick winners on sides against widely available lines. Sure, I could blame bad variance along with some suspect bets, but the truth is that the edge that's possible to achieve in betting sides is laughable compared to the obtainable edges at the other bets you mention ("derivatives" are things like halftime bets, team totals, etc.). Look no farther than the six futures bets I gave out below, and the current value of those bets.
Fezzik College Season Bets: UCLA season wins UN 6/-175 2 units (est. EV +1.88) Total +1.88 units
Fezzik NFL season bets: Bengals season wins UN 8.5/-120 2 units (Win +2.00) Buccaneers season wins OV 6/+120 1 unit (Win +1.20) Cowboys season wins UN 10/+105 2 units (Win 2.10) Vikings season wins UN 9.5/+100 3 units (Win 3.00) Redskins Sacks UN 40/-125 1 unit (est. EV +0.64) TOTAL +8.94 units
The likely 6-0 result on these bets could be pure noise, except what stands out is the margin of victory. With several weeks remaining in the season, there are already six clear-cut right sides, and the vast majority of them were wrapped up in mid-October! By contast, it would be almost impossible to pick six sides and, by the secord quarter, have six very-likely-to-win situations. There are many specialists who deal almost exclusively in these types of bets, because that's where the biggest edges can be found.
To get in on the action at the LVASportsboards member-only forums, it's only $24.95/month -- you'll find over 300 serious sports bettors, including the best brains in handicapping, sharing their knowledge and picks, but you have to be a member to take part. Makes a great holiday gift for the sports bettor in your life, too!
