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Question of the Day - 10 December 2010

Q:
What, really, is "sharp" money? For example, is sharp money defined only as bets from pros, or is there a segment of the public market that is educated in sports betting and falls into this category.
 Fezzik
A:

Here's the latest from Fezzik, our sports-betting expert:

Sharp money doesn't have to be a bet made by a professional-level sports bettor. It's simply a term for money bet by any informed (and talented) player. Sharp money is well described as a wager that typically is 1) placed at the very best number currently available, and 2) was bet at a number that's better than the closing number on the game.

A good example of a sharp wager in the NFL was betting Indy -2.5/-110 early in the week for the Thursday game. That number disappeared and didn't come back. The same game under 47 was another example. The sharp money got the best of the early offerings (by shopping) and beat the closing numbers, which ended around -3.5 and 44. Even though both sides lost this time, they are still considered to be good bets (which is where the term "right-side loser" comes from).

Of course, it's easy to forecast the past. Moving into the future, I will predict that in the College Football Championship game, Auburn at -3/-105 (the current Pinnacle line) will be the best line for betting the Tigers that will be available. Be advised, however that by next month, another sharp bet may well be Oregon +4.5/-110. Yes, it's possible for both bets to be qualified as sharp action. As an extension, all bets made at -3/-110 and +3/-110 represent action that is not sharp. Either of those bets might beat the eventual closing line, but both are currently available at -105 vig.

Also, sharp money can be bet on the same side at different numbers. Pulling out my crystal ball, I will predict that the total on Auburn/Oregon game will inflate from the current 74 to perhaps as high as 75.5 or even 76. So under 76 will be the sharpest under bet out there; however, any bet under 75 or higher likely will also be sharp, as the total will likely crash at some point and close lower.

By the way, the opposite of sharp money is "public" (or "square") money, which is a topic for another day.

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