Fezzik writes:
The best gamblers really don't make drastic resolutions. Rather they look at their existing "business models" and look for new opportunities and methods. In the sports-betting world, the New Year rings in on July 1, not January 1. Baseball is the only major summer sport and most pros don't focus on it, so many sports gamblers consider their year as beginning with the NFL exhibition season in August and concluding with the NBA finals in early in June.
It's during the summer break that the best take a long hard look at what they're doing, and make changes to their business models. They have to be very careful doing so, however, since one year of data in any single sport is not that significant. For example, during 2008 and 2009, I personally had well over $500,000 in football-contest net winnings. But during 2010, I cashed for only about $10,000, while spending the same amount in contest entries. Plus, I lost a $100,000 entry fee in the M Resort's High-Roller football contest. For 2011, I need to evaluate whether that high buy-in makes sense.
Further, I need to evaluate things like how much playing that contest "costs" me in man-hours. The deadline on the contest is 9 p.m. every Friday night, and the later you put in your plays the better the information you have, so you gain a slight edge by waiting till the deadline. That sounds harmless, but there are lots of ways to make money betting sports on a Friday night from 6 to 9 p.m. This past year, both Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve fell on Friday night. Uh oh! Needless to say, I felt like a total scrooge devoting all that time tweaking my selections those Friday nights instead of spending it with my family, only to fall out of the money.
I used to enter all the free contests in town. Why not, right? Well, because the "pay" for spending the time to play is horrible. Sure, they yield positive expectation monetarily, but if it's only a $15-per-hour expectation, it's an egregious error to spend all the time it takes to hit the property, fill out the picks, and wait in line to put them in.
If you want to do an evaluation, look at three key areas and think about how you can,
1. Maximize expected win-per-hour. 2. Minimize risk. 3. Maximize cash flow.
Number 3 is important because football futures are one of the most profitable ways to bet your money every year. But if you tie up most of your bankroll in August, you could end up short-stacked all football season. Think ahead.
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