Fezzik, of sister site LVASports.com, writes:
Futures Bets Basic Strategy: Avoid them!
When the St. Louis Rams won the Super Bowl with former grocery bagger Kurt Warner at quarterback, many Las Vegas Books got stung paying out tickets ranging from 200-1 all the way down to 10-1. That opening number wasn't all that inaccurate, but when the Rams opened the season undefeated and showed they were for real, too many books were too slow to move their futures lines and a lot of big tickets got cashed (there were also some "worst-to-first" baseball champs that did their damage to the books).
After that debacle, Vegas said "enough" and pretty much began hanging futures lines that eliminated any value on any team, with payouts so far below true probabilities that you now figure to have an expectation of losing over 50% of your money on a future. And it doesn't get any better late in the year -- the Seattle Seahawks are currently in the NFL's final eight, but their true odds are way over 100-1 right now!
While it may be fun to have a few dollars riding on a contender at an attractive price, you'll almost always do better by simply waiting for the playoffs, then parlaying the team that you like on the money line every game until they lose or go all the way. You'd be shocked how a dollar can turn into a hundred rapidly this way (and if the team you back doesn't make the playoffs, you won't be out a dime). But no matter how much I warn, I know there are some who just have to make these bets. For those players, I can cite a few exceptions to the never-bet-'em rule.
One is when you can spot an under-the-radar team that starts out a year much better than expected. Of course, this was easier to do a decade ago with teams just like the Rams. Now, with the decreased opening lines, you have to be able to pick off a live long shot well ahead of the pack. It can happen. Look no farther than this year's Auburn Tigers. You could have scooped them up at 100-1 back in September!
Another strategy is to look for a book dealing "yes" and "no" on such props. In these cases, the no is often the better (and maybe even a good) wager. Right now the Wynn is dealing the Jets to win the Super Bowl at yes 12-1 (+1200) and no 1-17 (-1700). The yes looks attractive to the recreational bettor, but the true odds are likely around 21-1, so it's the no that's the good bet. Having said that, how many players want to tie up $1,700 to win $100? Not many, which is why bookies can skew it a little -- though well-financed pros make these types of bets all the time.
Finally, here's the best futures-betting strategy of all. If you're a Las Vegas Advisor member, check out coupon #60 in the 2011 Member Rewards Book. It allows you to bet up to $50 and get 50% matching funds on a futures bet at any Lucky's sports book. The coupon's wording is a little unclear, but in a nutshell, bet $50 and get a $75 ticket. It probably doesn't get you quite over the minus-EV hump, but it definitely qualifies as a sports-betting cheap thrill.
To get in on the action at the LVASportsboards member-only forums, it's only $24.95/month -- you'll find over 300 serious sports bettors, including the best brains in handicapping, sharing their knowledge and picks, but you have to be a member to take part. There's also lots of great free information, including Anthony Curtis' weekly "Las Vegas Football Update" and "Featured Threads" from the message boards, at LVASports.com.
