Question of the Day - 21 January 2011

With the Super Bowl looming, this is one of the last in the series of "Fezzik Friday" QoDs for the season:

The Hilton leads the way, putting up hundreds of props as early as Tuesday evening after the conference title games. They don't always make it on Tuesdays, but you can count on them being up by Wednesday night (Wednesday between 6 and 9 p.m. after the last hoops tip-off is a good bet). While some of the other books also put up props right away, they tend to be of the "no brainer" variety -- things like will the first score be a TD/-150, etc. -- that are easy to price and carry little risk that a bad line will be put up. I expect there'll also be some unique, and possibly early, lines at M Resort this year (and the M takes the biggest action once they're up).

Whenever it is that the Hilton lines are posted, you'll see anywhere from 15 to 25 hard-core prop bettors magically show up to get the first crack at the board. No "sheets" are provided at the Hilton till late Thursday, so at the opening you have to either write the numbers down as they scroll or just work straight off the board.

Later in the week, the other guys fall in line like foot soldiers. A few major books put them up by the first Saturday, but you have to keep checking. Many just copy off the Hilton sheets (which is why they aren't up till the weekend). The Hilton has tired of this, so in the last few years the rumor is the Hilton has (uh oh) put up one or two "typos" on key numbers. The savvy pros spot these in the first hour, and rush to the Hilton only to see the board has the prop listed correctly. (Of course, the other sports book managers have about as much chance of catching these as I do of speaking Russian.) By the following Monday, almost every place has its numbers up and anyone showing up for Super Bowl week should be able to go from book to book and bet props at just about all of them.

That's for the tourists. For the pros there is clearly only one bet per prop to be had at the opening number and the best in this game are very competitive, spending a lot of energy trying to be at the right spot at the right time. Some pros work non-stop during these two weeks, both betting and constantly checking on books to see if they can figure out the precise moment the props will first go up. Along with the copied lines, some are unique, so the pros check everything. Every year it gets tougher and tougher (and then there are the parlay cards that have yielded a bonanza or two over the years).

So much for the timing; here are some strategy tips.

1. Bang the mistakes. When the initial props come out at each property, savvy bettors are ready to pounce. They've done their own work and know about what the number should be on certain players and game events, and they're simply looking to get their bet in against the obvious mistake lines when they're first put up.

2. Do the research and bet into more settled lines a few days later. Ideally, you'd have all your work done prior to any props coming out, but there's a limited number of hours in the day and there are always dozens of creative new props for the Super Bowl that require evaluation. Again, the faster you can spot the good number, the better. Last week I played Chicago's Matt Forte over rushing yards. He opened 71 at some spots and closed at 79.5. He gained 80 yards in the game, but easily could have had only 73-76, which would have made all but the early movers losers.

3. Be ready to anticipate what the public will bet, then consider betting it early and fading it late. Is anyone really going to bet Aaron Rodgers under for passing yardage? Early on, you might hop on his over, then look to play a higher number back, maybe at +120 (a middle and a scalp!).

4. Be careful about correlated one-sided action. If you bet 10 props, all under, and 67 points are scored in the game, you'll get crushed. Be aware that bets are not all independent, and huge risk can accumulate. Whenever possible, look to play more on good bets that are also anti-correlated (such as last year, Saints +7 and a second bet "no overtime").

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