Fezzik, handicapping pro from our sister site LVASports.com, writes:
The Super Bowl-prop parlay cards typically come out four days before the game. Unlike props on the board that can be changed, the cards are static. That makes the books vulnerable to big line moves, so they typically put only easy-to-price things on the cards -- number of field goals or sacks, fumbles lost, etc. -- and stay away from the more volatile props like QB passing yards. They also do their best to avoid putting up props that can be correlated (more on that below).
The cards are handy, easy to play, and can yield a big payoff. Hence, the public loves them. In general, however, you should look to avoid most of these. "Ties lose" is a tip-off to be wary, and when ties lose applies to lines like "number of FGs 3," "sacks 5," and the like, you're playing at a huge disadvantage. How huge? Negative 60% or more! You know those promotions where you get a free Super Bowl T-shirt for a $20 bet on a prop card. That shirt had better be worth at least $12 to you. If it's not, don't play.
Now, with all these negatives expressed, I can tell you that these cards have been the source of big wins for many experts. The key is to find correlations on the cards. Many years ago, books would make lots of mistakes. One classic was to allow a 3-team parlay on "1st-half points odd/even," "2nd-half points odd/even," and "game points odd/even." Think about it. If the first and second half are odd or even, the game has to land even. And if one is odd and the other even, the game has to land odd. You could simply play all four combinations of the first and second halfs and get paid the 3-team payout of 6-for-1 (you lose three units and win five).
Most correlations are much more subtle and not necessarily intuitive, which means a lot of mistakes are made. For example, passing yards for a QB does not correlate well with team performance. Parlaying Aaron Rodgers over 280 yards with Green Bay -2 is likely not a good strategy. Other results, however, do correlate nicely. Put on your thinking cap, hit all the books, and you'll probably find some decent correlations.
Note the "probably." The prop cards used to a goldmine for the sharps, but the vein has dried up quite a bit over the years and now the good opportunities are diminished, while the great ones are few and far between.
To get in on the action at the LVASportsboards member-only forums, it's only $24.95/month, plus, we've reintroduced our discounted $199 annual membership, in time for the Super Bowl. You'll find over 300 serious sports bettors, including the best brains in handicapping, sharing their knowledge and picks, but you have to be a member to take part. There's also lots of great free information, including Anthony Curtis' weekly "Las Vegas Football Update" and "Featured Threads" from the message boards, at LVASports.com free site.
