In the final installment of "Fezzik Friday" for this season, the handicapping pro from our sister site LVASports.com, writes:
I know this will be surprising, but I don't have a "play" to give out in the sense of what I know you're asking me about. The Super Bowl is the biggest sporting event of the year and it's fun to have something riding on the outcome. But given that I'm into the business of betting, I have to look beyond the fun part and call it as it is. The reality? The lines and props have had 10 days to be beaten into place, which means the marketplace has moved most numbers to a spot where there's no discernible advantage for betting either way (the bookies win by collecting the juice). That's not even considering that the books did a good job with their initial lines on the side and total. The game opened Packers -2, went to 2.5, and has pretty much stayed there, indicating a good read by the linesmakers (the total has also moved relatively little between 44 and 46).
Props can never be set as well as the side and total lines, so there were the usual opportunities coming out of the gate. But it doesn't take long for the pros to eat their fill on value, leaving little worthy of betting for most of the week leading up to the game. Almost.
Curiously, after that initial betting period, the other opportunity to find good situations with props is about 24 hours before the game. That's because as game day draws nearer, the "public" gets busier and begins betting wildly and predictably on certain things. The average square will usually bet the likes of:
There are plenty more of these public darlings.
My best advice is to get a printout of the lines on Saturday, and watch for any big move on obvious public bets like those above. If you find a number that's moved well off the number on the printout (e.g., Rodgers under 275/+120, OT NO/-800), etc.), pound away knowing you're getting a solid play.
To get in on the action at the LVASportsboards member-only forums, it's only $24.95/month, plus, we've reintroduced our discounted $199 annual membership, in time for the Super Bowl. You'll find over 300 serious sports bettors, including the best brains in handicapping, sharing their knowledge and picks, but you have to be a member to take part. There's also lots of great free information, including Anthony Curtis' weekly "Las Vegas Football Update" and "Featured Threads" from the message boards, at LVASports.com free site.
