Fezzik, the handicapping guru at LVASports.com writes:
Parlays are fun for the obvious reason that they offer an opportunity to bet a little to make a lot. As to your specific question, it really can't be answered definitively. But a reasonable rule of thumb is to assume that 1/2-points are best, followed by ties-win, then ties-lose. Usually, betting parlay cards of any kind is a bad idea, but not always. I won't talk about ties-lose cards, since they are almost always unplayable. But the others can offer opportunities. Assuming you want to play them, let's take a look at the best way to do it.
When playing a parlay card, you not only have to decide which card to play, but also how many teams to parlay. Here I analyze the factors associated with a minimum parlay-card bet (3-teamers), and one that gives you a chance for a home run (7-teamers). I use 7-teamers as my home run number, because 9-teamers typically pay more than 300-for-1, which triggers taxation issues. Further, trying to hit any parlay over seven teams is maddeningly difficult and pretty much requires that you play a bunch of combinations to have any fighting chance.
This analysis is based on the common practice of "for-1" payouts. For example, the typical ties-win 3-teamer pays 6-for-1. This means that if you wager $100, you get back $600 on winners. Since the $600 includes your bet, your win is only $500. This contrasts with the common practice of playing "off-the-board" parlays, which pay 6-to-1. That's a win of $600, which is equates with a 7-for-1 payoff.
Given that parlay-card payouts are so much lower than off-the-board parlays, you might assume that the cards should never be played. But the cards often have numbers that you can't find off the board. Specifically, you can often find key numbers on cards that aren't available anywhere else -- e.g., +7 on a ties-win versus having to play +6 off the board. This can more than make up for the lower payouts.
3-Teamer Analysis
When playing ties-win cards, pretty much every shop pays 6-for-1, so look for the best numbers you can find on these cards (shop, just as you do for straight bets). For 1/2-point cards, payouts are typically 6- or 6.5-for-1, though there's the rare 6.75- and the almost extinct 7-for-1. In reality, 6.75-for-1 is the best you'll find (currently offered only at Lucky's books in Vegas). Even at the high-end of the pay spectrum, the numbers on the card have to be slightly better than the board numbers or you should just play off the board. There are rare situations where the ties-win card will be the best option, usually involving getting the key numbers, like +3, +7, +10, and +14.
7-Teamer Analysis:
For 7-teamers, the parlay-card payouts are actually quite attractive compared to the payouts on off-the-board parlays, not to mention more efficient. Just try having a ticket writer type in seven teams for an off-the-board-parlay; you'll be beyond frustrated by the time spent. It's easier for you and the book to just play it on the card. No wonder the books offer good odds at this level (they want you to automate the process to speed up the transaction).
On 1/2-point cards, look for 100-for-1 payouts. (Note how the "for" vs. "to" disparity is no longer important with big numbers -- the difference between 100-to-1 and 99-to-1 isn't significant.) A payout of 104 is very good (Lucky's again and Cal Neva), 90 is below average (Hilton and Venetian), and anything less is unacceptable (Cantor, Station, and Jerry's Nugget, among others). Throwing darts, you have a 1/128 chance of winning, so the house edge is large. However, you can get that back by actively handicapping well and finding sensitive "rogue numbers" that may not be available off-the-board.
On ties-win cards, 80-for-1 is very good (not available in Vegas) and you need 75 at a minimum (Coasts, Golden Nugget, and South Point, among others). The 1/2-pointer is usually the better idea, but if you have several games you like at spreads of 6.5, 9.5, 2.5, etc,, and you can grab them at the corresponding key numbers (7, 10, 3), it's usually better to play the ties-win instead.
Risk Aversion Tip: When playing a 7-teamer, look to take a Monday Night Football game, side or total, where the spread is attractive vs. the card. This will typically give you a chance to hedge the last game in your parlay should it still be live and, perhaps, catch a final-game middle.
The books know they're vulnerable to soft parlay-card numbers and in recent years they've gotten very good at "pulling off" cards with numbers off by 3+ points compared to current market lines. Consequently, it's always a good idea to scan the board before you bubble in your selections to check for "game 39-40 is off the cards" type messages.
