Handicapper and LVASportsboards moderator Fezzik responds:
The sports-betting marketplace in major sports has gotten tougher and tougher to beat vs. widely available numbers. Very rarely will you find a line that's just completely off. More often, the edges that are to be had are small, but sharp handicappers who employ sharp betting do get the money. And that usually means getting the best (or close to the best) number on your bet.
The NFL "3" is one of the most critical numbers in sports betting. NFL teams favored by 3 win by 3 about 10% of the time. This means that if a game is properly lined at 3, playing the game +3 (or -3) you'd expect to go 45-45-10, hitting 50%, but losing the vigorish you pay (unless you find a +3/+105-type of bet). In this case, though, capturing just a half point turns it around. Now, laying 2.5 points/-110, you go 55-45 over 100 trials, turning the vig-loser into a monster winner, all due to that 1/2 point.
While other numbers aren't as critical as the NFL 3, they still matter. In fact, all numbers are pretty important in basketball. Just this week in the WNBA finals, Minnesota was favored by 6 vs. Atlanta. The game ticked up to 6.5, then down to 5.5. Final score: 101-95 Minny. Everyone wins! (Well, not everyone-realistically, maybe 10 people in the world got the +6.5 before it disappeared forever, so a lot got caught pushing on the 6.)
One of my great frustrations in this industry is hearing the talking heads on the radio say things like, "I liked this side at -2.5, and I like it at -3.5." If they're willing to bet it at -3.5, that means they believe it's still at least a 53% play (enough to have a clear edge; hitting 52.4% is breakeven betting -110). That would mean that -2.5 was a 63% play, and edges like that are so few and far between that it is beyond a leap of faith to believe it. In reality, -3.5 is no longer good and I'll be saying, "I like the dog at +3.5." In these cases I invariably hear, "But you bet the favorite at -2.5 … what the hell"? I respond, "They were both good plays." And they stare at me like I've lost my mind.
