Fezzik writes:
Before answering this, let me clarify what moves lines.
Money. Period.
If a surplus of money is bet on one side of a game, the line will move. The ticket-counts don't matter. All that matters is the amount of money bet, as bookmakers don't balance ticket-counts, they balance their books. And for a line to move based on tons of money coming in, and to stay moved, the original line has to be wrong. This happens, but it's extremely rare.
Certainly it's theoretically possible that a media personality could move lines given a big enough following. In practice, though, it doesn't happen. Ever! The reason is that in 2011, the vast majority of big bets are made by knowledgeable "wise guys," not lubs following Chris Berman, Colin Cowherd, or any other media guide. These wise guys don't mind following sharp opinions, but they know that the best opinions don't come from the media guys.
It might seem like the media should be qualified to find and convey a great position. After all, they cover this stuff 24/7, right? The problem is that the media is trained to report what happens, not to forecast what will happen. Because of this, no one that I can name from the media today has ever shown any predictive ability against the spread. Connections with players, 10-hour days watching games, lots of effort to put it all together -- it simply doesn't translate. As a group, the public pundits inevitably wind up picking about 49% ATS.
Of course, with dozens of talk-show hosts picking away, probability dictates that a few of them will get hot. One or two will get very hot and roll something like a 21-5 and the bettors -- desperate or not (but all recreational) - will jump on the bandwagon. Meanwhile the real bettors who bet the big money will know better. And in the end, a thousand $50 bets just doesn't matter when one big betting syndicate, seeing value the other way, fires multi-thousand-dollar bets across the board and moves the line right back to where it started.
In the past, the high-profile touts could move lines with well-hyped "100-Star Lock! Games of the Year." I can't help but make fun of these guys by sending out some of my own releases with tags like "The-freight-train-of-cash-Battlestar-Galactica-game-of-the-millenium!" But I digress.
The recognized and followed touts giving out these over-hyped picks might move the lines 1-2 points initially. But the fact is, the wise guys are always waiting in the wings, licking their chops in anticipation of firing back the other way at the line's peak. As such, it's not unusual for a line to move from, say -7.5, up to -10, but then come back and close at 8.5.
Bottom line, it's very rare that any college or NFL side is off by 3 points mid-week. The celebrated Dr. Bob actually was the documented best tout (or media guy) out there, hitting 55% in college football over a 20-year period. And his releases did move lines 2 points, and up to 3, years ago. Guess what happened? The market got much tougher subsequent 2008, and today, the Good Doctor's releases move the market a half-point, if. Whatever edge even this proven commodity had is gone.
One place where the lines are
To bring it all together, Cowherd is on a "sizzle" that he very likely can't sustain. His radio followers don't bet enough to make a difference. And Jimmy Vaccaro, without question, realizes all of this. I like Cowherd and I listen to his show, but follow the radio personality at your peril.
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