Handicapper and LVASportsboards moderator Fezzik writes:
I expect the CBB handle to go up 20% or so during the year. Then when football is finishing in January, look for CBB to be big. And I mean really big in February, as it will have virtually no competition (hockey has its diehard fans, but they're a small vocal minority).
I expect the sharp books to do everything they can this winter to up the CBB handle. This figures to include dealing more totals (books have always been reluctant to deal too many totals, knowing how potentially beatable they are). I also expect more props, higher limits, and other player-friendly developments.
The reason is simple. Sports book managers know that the suits upstairs look at two things: volume (handle) and results. If your handle is going down -- even with an excuse (the NBA situation) - long-term forecasts for the future suffer. However, if the handle is higher, any short-term reduction in hold can be justified as "short-term variance."
This mode of operation is pretty much the norm in the business world. If sales numbers are hurting, it's standard to slash prices and expand offerings in an attempt to keep the sales numbers from declining too much during any year.
There's nothing wrong with the concept, but it's been taken to extremes in the past. A locals-oriented book once offered a no-vig option to bettors. The idea was a good one - use a nice giveback, to bump up volume and promote customer loyalty. However, if you start selling hamburgers for 19ยข apiece (like Hardy's did years ago), you have to worry about the guy who suddenly wants to buy 1,000 hamburgers. This is exactly what happened during the no-vig promo. There were so many pros (wearing cargo pants stuffed with cash and happily betting -6.5 EV and +7 EV on the same game) banging in bets, the locals struggled to even get through the lines with their $20 wagers.
Bottom line, I expect several adjustments that will accrue to the advantage of the players. The one negative will be that the oddsmakers won't be overwhelmed having to set lines for so many sports. Without the NBA to worry about, they'll have more time to make better initial numbers and there likely won't be as many "mistake" lines in the openers as there have been in the past.
What's amazing to me is how few people seem to care about the NBA at all. Almost everyone I talk to says, "I don't care about this thing" (although they say they'd miss the playoffs). Am I the only one who sees the NBA and the UAW as being essentially the same? Both organizations enjoyed great union contracts that were ridiculously favorable to the workers, yet they were unwilling to agree to a fair contract in tougher times that gave them less, saying, "we fought too hard to give it back with all these concessions." Uh, OK. Then go work in Turkey -- or at the Turkey Basket -- while I drive my VW to the Thomas & Mack.
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