LVASports.com's Fezzik responds:
Here are the details. For $5, you pick NFL outright winners. If you get them all right, you win the progressive jackpot, splitting with anyone else who's also hit it. If no one wins, which is the usual case, 70% of the money collected that week goes into the following week's jackpot (the other 30% is held out to build a secondary jackpot that becomes the prize after the primary is hit).
The problem is that it's really hard to go perfect straight-up (SU) in the NFL. Being a good handicapper doesn't really matter-taking the favorites will maximize your win rate. But while taking all the favorites increases your chance to win, it also increases your chance of having to "chop" the prize with others.
Realistically, your win rate picking SU in the NFL will be around 65%. So in a 16-game slate, your chances of getting that perfect card are .65^16 = .001, or a .1% chance. Since winning pays a minimum of $10,000 for $5, it looks like a good payout. But again, it's very likely you will have to chop the prize if all those favorites win, and it could be a 10-way chop! Having a perfect card while picking dogs will no doubt get you the prize outright, but randomly picking games will win only .5^16 = .00002 = .002% -- it might as well be zero.
So basic strategy says wait till the prize pool accumulates and the NFL bye weeks kick in. If the prize is above $20,000 and it's a 13-game week, I think it's a reasonable play to go for it. Pick12 favorites and one moderate dog; best is to play an unpopular team like Jacksonville vs. a more public team. Now your chance of winning is .65^12 x .4 = .0023 = .23%. Even if you have to chop the prize with a few others, you have a clear positive expectation.
That said, playing at this point is pretty much a waste of time. In fact, during the year there just isn't much reason at all to play until the progressive hits about $30,000, it's a bye week for six teams, and the majority of the games have big spreads, which connotes strong favorites (as I write this, a single player just went 13-0 to win $51,770).
Come playoff time, things change. Since you have to go "only" 8-0 on the card, this is the time to start chucking in lots of entries (given that the progressive is at a high level). At this point you could play the 256 permutations and guarantee a payout, but that wouldn't guarantee that your $1,280 investment makes money (due to chopping). The likelihood of making a profit goes up as the size of the progressive pot gets larger; however, now the problem is filling out and putting in 256 cards. It's not as easy as you think-allot some serious time.
