This topical "Fezzik Friday" Q&A, addressed to our sports-betting guru on the LVASportsboards regarding the controversial touchdown allowed in the Packers/Cardinals game two weeks ago, was due to run Oct. 5. However, last week’s computer issues here prevented us from running a QoD at all, so although some time has elapsed since the specific incident referred to, the answer has wider implications and applicability, so we’ve opted to run it now.
The D really stepped up with its promotion. It's unfortunate more Vegas books didn't do the same. William Hill's no-juice follow-up was OK, but it didn't have the oomph of the D's.
The reason the situation was uniquely set up for a promo of the type implemented by the D was that the line on the game was pretty much Green Bay -3.5/even in Las Vegas, but "connected" sharp bettors could get GB -3/-110 (or -3.5/+110) offshore on Monday. What that means it that almost everyone betting on the Packers was a recreational bettor or a good customer for the house (the harsher terms would be a "total square" or "dead money"). These are the very players the books are desperate to attract and retain as customers, as they really have no chance to win long-term. So creating a loss-leader that puts money in the pockets of these players made tons of sense, not to mention the powerful publicity it generated (although I can only imagine the admin nightmare the D had with folks who had ripped up their losing GB tickets!).
Had it been Seattle that was cheated by the refs -- and there's my answer to the first part of the question -- the play wouldn't have been as strong, as it would be mostly the sharper bettors ("wise guys") who were getting the refund.
Does that really make sense? Probably not (although the publicity value would have stayed intact).
An extreme example of a really dumb promo occurred in Las Vegas years ago when two sister properties gave out $5,000 weekly in a drawing, with bettors getting one ticket for every parlay they placed. Five to seven pros proceeded to plough parlay action into the shops' soft lines. The result: After being beaten soundly by the pros' betting, the two casinos then had to turn around and hand over the bulk of the $5,000 to those same guys. By October, funky things were happening. Despite the wise guys having 85% of tickets in the drum at one of the casinos, they were winning only about 1/4 of the prize money in the drawings. Yet, at the other property, the ridiculous bad luck for the wise guys didn't materialize -- they kept winning at the 85% clip that a fair drawing would yield. Hmm.
Who knows what, if anything, was going on, but doubt about the integrity of the promotion certainly entered the minds of many. By mid-November the books were still staring at a river of red in their results and they'd had enough. The books politely, but firmly, let the sharps know that they were no longer welcome. No more drawing tickets. No more parlays tickets, period. They were out both the money and a fair amount of credibility and good will.
The moral of the story: Good promos give you great publicity and attract and retain good customers. The drawing promo wasn't a good one. The D's was.
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