Sports betting expert and LVASportsboards co-moderator Fezzik responds:
I personally can't stand the policy of not changing your opinion after seeing reasons to do so. More information allows you to make more informed choices. Once a bet is made, subsequent bets should be analyzed as independent events. The ultimate example of this is live wagering, where you may well be firing on a team like the Broncos -10.5 at the end of the game while also holding some Chargers -11 that was bet late in the first half. Now, that is one bad portfolio, yet both bets could be argued to have been good when made.
Based on my current power ratings, New England is the best team in the AFC. A 3-3 record would normally render a futures bet on that team to win the conference beyond suspect, but there's very little competition in the AFC and New England's schedule is easy from here out. Bottom line: 3-3 is an aberration. This team will go 11-5ish, wind up being the #2, or so, seed in the playoffs, and it's going to be tough for anyone to beat them. (Note, we win our under 12 if it lands 11-5!)
As for San Francisco, they too will likely go somewhere around 11-5. The NFC is a wild wild group right now, but it looks like the only team that will emerge with a stellar record is Atlanta, and they aren't even a top-5 team. Of course, the San Francisco conference bet looked a lot better prior to the loss to the G-men, but I still have them rated as a top NFC team. As for the San Francisco under-10 bet … well … I like my chances to win 3/4 of my season-wins bets this year, but this isn't a ticket that I'm counting on cashing.
Editor's note: Fezzik has always been a season-wins specialist in the NFL, and he currently has a portfolio that's projected to win double-digit units.
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