Sports betting expert and LVASportsboards co-moderator Fezzik responds:
The Las Vegas Books did get killed last week, as favorites went 10-4 ATS (against the spread). But the killer was that teams favored by 3.5 or more went 8-0 ATS.
Most Las Vegas books are happy to simply deal balanced action, so as money started pouring in on teams like the Bears (vs. the Titans) and the Lions (vs. the Jags), they adjusted their numbers to get "sharp" action back on the dogs. No crisis there, but the problem was the parlays. Many recreational players, play 3-, 4-, 6-, and even 10-team parlays. These players don't shop for numbers. They just fire. And guess what? These parlays tend to all be on the biggest favorites, and every one of them covered.
The result was a tsunami of parlay liability that all hit Sunday afternoon, after the morning games went final and as the afternoon games were kicking off. Like Tuesday-night's election -- blink and this thing was over. All the key favorites had covered, meaning the 6-team parlays were 5-0 with a game pending and carryover parlays from Saturday that were 2-0 were now 7-0 with two games left. There was no time for the books to do anything except shake their heads and start tabulating the bettor landslide. A further kick in the teeth came with all the teaser and money line parlays that were bet on those same teams.
It's the nature of the business that lots of favorites winning spells a bad, and possibly very bad, result for the books. But don't shed any tears for them. A huge percentage of the money won by the players is basically "dead" money that the books hold 50% on every week. So once every five years they can afford to pay out 200% to these players. The winning bettors will, without question, be back firing in on the same favorites next week … with the predictable disastrous results.
To sign up for a one-month trial for the exclusive LVASportsboards, the only forums where you'll find discussions with Fezzik and many of the top sports-betting minds, minus the mud-slinging and cattiness that generally typifies these environments, it's just $24.95. Or get a year-long membership at the discounted rate of $199 and enjoy the whole football season and thereafter. Just click the link to register and sign-up! (Note: It's a two-step process.)
