Sports betting expert and LVASportsboards co-moderator Fezzik responds:
You hear it all the time: No NFL non-quarterback is worth more than a point. Star QBs are worth only three points and the public typically overreacts to a key injury like this, so you should look to bet on the scrub-QB team when they lose their QB star.
This might have been decent advice in 1985, but it's usually terrible advice in 2012, unless you get at least an extra touchdown in the line. Of course, it depends on how good the back-up quarterback is. But guess what? Almost every back-up QB in the NFL is awful. Awful! In this pass-happy league, journeymen QBs and rookies simple cannot play at a high level.
The Steelers/Ravens game is the best evidence I can give of how valuable a quarterback really is. Pit was -5 hosting Baltimore with Ben Roethlisberger the presumed starter on the look-ahead line. When Big Ben had to leave the MNF game with an injury, the line dropped to Steelers -3/-125, even though he was still expected to play in the Ravens game. As soon as he was officially ruled out, an absolute feeding frenzy on Baltimore broke out. The line went to PK, then Ravens -2.5, it paused, then it powered through the 3, and Baltimore currently stands at -3.5. That's a 9-point move!
Now, you might argue that a move like that is ludicrous, but no one has yet headed to the window to bet Byron Leftwich +3.5. Further, these aren't the squares betting. It's all sharps (although some, no doubt, were gobbling up Baltimore knowing that the line would move that much).
Crazy you say? Well ... Peyton Manning's Colts always won 12 games, while without him they won two. The Bears with Jay Cutler (who isn't even that good) win 3/4 of their games. Without him, they lose. Even going back to John Elway in Denver, the Broncos went from a solid playoff team to a bottom-of-the-NFL team whenever he was hurt.
I have to admit, I'll likely be on the Steelers this week at +4, but I have little confidence it will win. It will be a small bet.
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