Professional sports bettor and LVASports.com host Fezzik, write:
Ten years ago, the majority of "good' plays were dogs and unders in most sports. However, it's 2012, and the market has become pretty much completely efficient, meaning faves and overs in all sports cover right around 50%. The lone surviving good subset is NFL double-digit dogs. Here the dogs, especially the home dogs, continue to cover over half the time (and there's another aspect to this described below).
Anyone who follows long-term winning cappers has seen this trend evolve. The "Dr. Bobs" of the world used to release a lot more dogs than favorites. Now their plays are chock full of chalk (favorites). You need look no further than last week, where 7-4 USC with its back-up quarterback playing 11-0 Notre Dame, opened +6.5 and closed +3.5 in some spots. The market just doesn't support favorites like it used to … even undefeated public favorites!
Expanding on the successful subset mentioned above, an exception to the rule involves highly ranked teams, playing in late games (when most of the pros have quit for the day), and betting in Las Vegas books. Here you do see bargains show up on the dogs and unders for these high-total games. As an example, yesterday's Saints/Falcons game opened 55.5 and crashed to 54 at sharp books, but local books, like Coasts, still had 55.5 at post.
