These find-a-needle-in-a-haystack futures are always difficult to win, but especially so late in the year. The problem is that by December everyone's power ratings are pretty much the same, with the result that it's too easy to accurately estimate every team's chances and derive accurate futures lines.
The books usually deal futures odds that are silly-low, as well, simply ripping off the public. Typically, the two or three favorites are dealt odds that are too low to bet, but try to take a long shot and you'll be ripped off completely.
A good example of this was Michigan State in the NCAA basketball tourney (it works pretty much the same for all sports) as a #2 seed a few years ago. Someone was showing me his Michigan State 30-1 ticket he'd bet two weeks earlier and bragging about how he was "stealing" with that number. Michigan State made the finals that year before losing, so the guy did OK if he hedged off a bit at the end. However, had he bet and parlayed wins on the moneyline for every MSU game during the tournament, he'd have turned $1 into $55 … prior to the final game! Betting in this manner usually outperforms a straight futures bet when the team winds up performing well, and it requires no additional risk.
The one area where you can find value with futures-style bets is with books that deal Y/N on teams to win the Super Bowl. Here, it's not unusual to find great value on teams to not win the SB. Often you can find bets at -1000 (10-1) where the true odds are more like 15-1. But who really wants to tie up money betting "bridge-jumpers" like these?
Bottom line, if you have a good handle on who's going to win, just bet them every week. You'll wind up making more money and you have the option, if the story changes, to simply stop betting that team, rather than having to hedge back the other way.
