Most of the bigger Las Vegas and offshore books will take that parlay, but it won’t pay anywhere close to what you’re expecting. Last year’s #1 seeds were Duke at -6000 (60-1), Kansas -6000, Gonzaga -7000, and Louisville -15000. A $100 bet parlaying those prohibitive favorites returned $105.40. That wasn’t the profit; that was the total return. The profit was just $5.40.
OK, at least it seems like a sure profit and you could bet something like $10,000 to win $540. Maybe, but nothing’s certain. It's 116 games and counting for #1s beating #16s, but there’ve been some recent scares. In 2012, Syracuse beat NC Asheville by just 7 points. It was the first time in 15 years that a #1 did not win the game by double digits. But then it happened twice last year, when Southern lost by just 6 to Gonzaga and Kansas got by Western Kentucky 64-57.
Whether or not the high probability of the win is worth betting 20 to win 1 is a personal decision. What some might consider a similar situation exists in the Super Bowl, where the pros have been collecting on no overtime for years (there’ve been 48 Super Bowls without an overtime game). It’s considered a strong play, but the lay price is only in the 8- to 12-1 range.
A better comparison can be found in horse racing, where it’s called "bridge jumping" when someone bets a large amount on a favorite to show at $2.10 or $2.20, looking for the 5%-10% return. That term can be applied to any bet with a very large lay price, and it certainly fits this March Madness 4-teamer -- you’re a big favorite to cash, but you might be looking for a bridge to jump off of if you don’t.
[Editor’s Note: Sports-betting expert Frank B contributed to this answer. He’s the host of our LVASportsboards fee-based forums ($24.95 per month).]
