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Question of the Day - 18 June 2015

Q:
In the April LVA, you refer to an "insta-comp" at Rampart. Earn 1,000 same-day points ($2,000 coin-in) and get a comp for a choice of four different meals. You say the expected loss is less than $10. Can you explain how that is calculated?
A:

We determine the cost of a comp by a straight expected-value assessment that takes into account what the play requirement is and how much on average it will cost you to fulfill it. There will usually be multiple ways to amass the necessary points, so we typically go with the least expensive route or the one that we assume most of our readers will follow. In this case, playing $2,000 through a video poker machine makes the most sense. The assessment can be made to-the-penny precise, but that would require knowing a player’s video poker skill level, so we make some assumptions and round the numbers as you’ll see.

The first step is to look at the game selection. The highest-returning video poker game at Rampart is Triple Double Bonus, at 99.58%. But that’s with perfect play and TDB isn’t the most intuitive game on the floor. Rampart also has plenty of 9/6 Jacks or Better, which returns a slightly lower 99.54%, but is much easier to play well, including near-perfectly if you have a Dancer/Daily Video Poker Strategy Card in hand. Once we’ve settled on the vehicle, we simply multiply the amount played by the casino advantage (.46% on 9/6 JoB) to get $2,000 x -.0046 = -$9.20, which is the expected loss for this play.

As you can see, we round it up a bit to account for the reality that very few can play perfectly, but even assuming near-perfect play isn’t quite right. Though we didn’t do it for the Rampart analysis, we often provide a range that’s more practical. For example, in this case we might assign a -2% EV to the average JoB player, which would set the cost at $40, or just about the retail value of the comp. Breaking even doesn’t sound that great, but that doesn’t include the value of the club points you accrue during the play-through and whatever "back-end" value, including mailed offers, you might also get. Considering those elements makes this a good deal for players of any reasonable skill level.

Anyone who plays specifically for this comp should be aware that the actual outcome is subject to variance that could result in losing well over $100 on quarter machines (or you could hit a $1,000 royal). What makes this type of deal so strong, though, is that many will wager at this level in their normal course of play. Since it’s something you'd do anyway for entertainment, bagging a comp of this quality in the process is a big value-added.

By the way, the dinner comp is in Rampart’s very cool Carmel Room, and the choices include a jumbo lobster tail and a (jumboer) prime rib. The deal continues to be offered seven days a week. It’s a good one.

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