It's a waiting game.
Both the big and small players seem to be holding back to see if someone hits pay dirt up there. Once that happens, expect the floodgates to open.
However, as a caveat, we don't expect much of anything to occur between Sahara Avenue and the Stratosphere. North of Sahara, you're in the City of Las Vegas, where taxes are higher (hence the lack of new-casino development there). Bob Stupak built the Stratosphere where he did, because he owned the land. He did propose a Titanic-themed resort on the site of the Thunderbird motel across and up the street, but residents of the adjoining John S. Park Historic Neighborhood (the only one of its kind in Las Vegas) were so riled up by the massive proposal that it sank like its namesake.
Later, in the 2005-2007 period, there was a rush on parcels around the Stratosphere, mostly driven by real estate speculators. The Great Recession left them high and dry and we haven't heard about north-of-Sahara development since.
The one exception is the Lucky Dragon Casino, which sits on the north side of Sahara, opposite MGM Resorts International's Rock in Rio festival grounds. Developer Andrew Fonfa already owned the land, next to his Allure condo tower, and presumably needed to monetize it. Casinos are a better bet than condos right now, hence the Lucky Dragon. It’s designed and outfitted primarily for Chinese and Chinese-American gamblers: English will be the secondary language on all the casino signage and all five restaurants will serve Chinese food when the joint opens on December 3. However, despite the inception on Dec. 2 of direct Peking-Las Vegas flights, Lucky Dragon is counting on locals for more than one-third of its business.
This is a risky gambit. Nearby SLS Las Vegas was predicated on heavy locals play and continues to struggle. Financial details on SLS are rare, but the early numbers were dire. Lucky Dragon will have to pull players from Palace Station and the Chinatown-area Gold Coast, where Asian-Americans flock for intense profuse gambling in air thick with cigarette smoke. That's not quite the laid-back vibe Lucky Dragon is trying to project.
But if Lucky Dragon lives up to its name, that could finally embolden Genting Group to accelerate work on Resorts World Las Vegas, which isn't scheduled to begin in earnest until the first quarter of next year, if it doesn’t succumb to yet another postponement. Ditto James Packer's Alon, a bit to the south and having trouble raising money. Archon Corp. might even finally find a taker for the old Wet 'n Wild site, immediately south of SLS.
But the biggest player that could be spurred into action is MGM Resorts International. It has already offered to tear up the Rock In Rio site to make room for an NFL stadium. If it senses that there’s finally money to be made at the corner of Las Vegas Boulevard and Sahara Avenue, it could grind up the $15 million Rock In Rio acreage, the Circus Circus RV park, and some space-inefficient low-rise motels, and replace them with the kind of grand project that MGM wants to be its signature. But that would probably be about five years hence. If -- a big "if" -- Lucky Dragon is a blockbuster, that would probably accelerate several timetables.
In the meantime, don't expect a new casino opening until 2019 or 2020, if Resorts World and Alon continue at their present pace (sluggish in Resorts World's case, stagnant in Alon's).
As for giant, derelict Fontainebleau, Carl Icahn has missed his late-summer deadline for selling it, so expect it to be a Strip eyesore for years to come, considering the time and money it would take to finish it, even if it sold tomorrow. At present, it appears to be untouchable. Short of a galvanic event, the north Strip is going to be a casino boneyard for several years to come.
