[Editor's Note: We can't say how it happened that that pesky 2 wound up in front of the 50,000,000. Typo? Exaggeration? However it did, you're absolutely right, we acknowledge the error, and you have our thanks for pointing it out. It turned into a good QoD, which is penned by John Robison, our slot answer man, author of The Slot Expert's Guide to Playing Slot Machines.]
Technical Standard 2.070 about jackpot odds states, "If the odds of hitting any advertised jackpot that is offered by a gaming device exceeds 100 million to one, the odds of the advertised jackpot must be prominently displayed on the award glass or video display. (Adopted: 12/04. Effective 1/1/05.)"
The most recent Megabucks PAR sheet I have is from the late 1990s. It shows that each reel on a three-reel Megabucks machine has 368 virtual stops, which puts the chances of hitting the Megabucks jackpot at 1 out of 49,836,032.
Using that probability, Michael Shackleford estimated that the average point at which Megabucks will hit is about $15.2 million. In August 2006 IGT ran ads saying that that jackpot was "statistically overdue" when the jackpot was over $14 million -- pretty close to Shackleford's estimate.
The reset amount was raised from $7 million to $10 million in September 2005. The "overdue" ads ran in 2006, so it looks like the chances of hitting Megabucks are still 1 out of 49,836,032, below the threshold that requires them to be posted.
