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Question of the Day - 30 January 2017

Q:
How was Phil Ivey using his knowledge of the cards’ discrepancies to win at baccarat if the game really has no decision to make other than player, banker, or tie?
A:

Although card counting is useless at baccarat, the individual cards do have different values for predicting whether a hand will win or lose.

A somewhat simplified explanation is that if you know a 7, 8, or 9 will be dealt to a hand, with no other information, that hand would be favored to win. If you know any other card will be dealt to a hand, with no other information, that hand would be more likely to lose.

Because of the way baccarat is dealt, if you know the first card out of the shoe will be a 7, 8, or 9, you'd also know the player would be the favorite to win that hand, since the first card dealt on a round goes to the player. If you know any other card will be the first card out of the shoe, the player hand would be more likely to lose, so a banker bet would be favored.

Phil Ivey used an old blackjack technique called "edge sorting." Casino cards aren't always cut symmetrically. If you look at the pattern on the back of a card, you’ll sometimes see that the edge on the right side of the card differs slightly from the edge on the left side of the card.

If all of the 7s, 8s, and 9s are turned one way, and the other cards are turned the opposite way, you’ll be able to bet player or banker based on the edge of the first card to be dealt on a new round, since you know that card will go to the player hand.

Since players cannot touch the cards in baccarat, Ivey asked the dealer to turn the cards for him. The casino manager okayed Ivey’s unusual request and instructed the dealer to turn the cards however Ivey wanted them turned.

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