After reading the QoD on 3/30/17, I have stated using the OPP card counting system at our local Native American casinos here in New Mexico. Very easy to use, thanks for that info. I started wondering though, is there any type of counting system that works with the shuffle machines that are so prevalent now?
[Editor's Note: Arnold Snyder, who penned the March 30 answer, responds.]
The "continuous shuffle" machines being used today, in which the dealer deals out only one or two rounds before placing the discards back into the machine, cannot be beaten by any card-counting system.
All traditional counting systems get their advantage over the house by the player seeing a substantial portion of the cards that have been taken out of play, providing the counter with valuable information on the cards that remain to be played. If you never see more than a round or two before the played cards are returned to the unplayed decks, you'll never get enough information to get an edge over the house.
Some of the common shuffle machines being used today can be beaten with counting if the dealer deals out a substantial portion of the decks in play before returning the discards to the machine. In this case, the house is simply using the machine to mix the cards and speed the game, not to foil card counters. If your dealers in New Mexico do this, then by all means you can rely on card counting as a valid method of getting an advantage.
How many cards do you need to see to get the edge in your favor? That depends on the rules of the game and the counting system you're using. Assuming typical rules and a 3-2 BJ payout, you'll want to see more than 50% of the cards in play dealt. If there are six decks in the shoe, you'll want to see more than three decks dealt before the cards are replaced in the machine and ideally, more than four decks to get much more than a breakeven expectation. And you'll need to use a pretty big betting spread to get your edge.
It's not the machine that kills the card-counter's advantage possibilities; it's the counter's inability to see enough cards taken out of play. Every time the dealer puts the played cards back into the machine, the house gets its full edge back and the counter has to start over from scratch. The machine itself is just mixing the cards in an attempt to randomize the deal.
