Question of the Day - 13 May 2017

[Editor’s Note: This answer was provided by Andrew Uyal, a pit boss, ex-crap dealer, and advantage player .]

Here's a new saying to live by: If you have to toss your bet to the stickman, you're better off hanging onto it. I'll explain.

It may seem advantageous to make a bet that pays odds over a bet that pays even money. But there are a few problems with that method, and they’re costly.

First, the three bets you've given are all one-roll wagers — win or lose. On the come-out roll, a pass-line bet wins on 7 and 11 and loses if a crap number (2, 3, or 12) is rolled. However, if any other number rolls, the bet stays in action (establishing the point). The house edge on the pass-line bet is quite small in comparison to most other bets on the crap table and, for that matter, on the casino floor, coming in at 1.41%.

Now, let's talk about your bets. First, these are all prop bets that you make by tossing your cheques to the stickman, who places them in the proper box in the middle of the layout. Starting with any seven, this may seem like a good idea to novice players, since 7 comes more than any other number, but hold that thought.

To truly comprehend this game, you have to understand that there are 36 combinations of the dice. Six of those combinations add up to 7. Every other number has fewer combinations. So, on your any seven bet, there are 6 ways to win and 30 ways to lose. True odds dictate you should be paid 5-to-1 on such a bet. However, the table reads the payout as 5-for-1. For every $5 you win, you're charged $1. As such, this bet carries a huge house advantage, 16.67%. For every $100 you bet on any seven, your mathematical expectation is to lose $16.67.

The eleven, or yo, or yo’leven bet, along with any crap, doesn’t fare much better, I'm afraid. They both pay short of true odds and carry a big house edge of 11.11%.

If you enjoy making these bets and don't mind giving up the substantial advantage to the casino, by all means, toss 'em in and have a blast. Just understand your negative expectation.

But if minimizing loss is your goal, stick to the pass line. Or you can try the don't pass, which carries a slightly better house edge of 1.36%. Most crap players, though, call this move (specifically, betting the don't when you're rolling the dice) the “dark side,” because it seems it turns everything upside down: winning means losing. Often, don’t players are rooting against the rest of the table, which isn’t as much fun for everyone. The vast majority of shooters want to make their point and hold the dice for a long time, rather than seven out right away. That’s why the pass line is emphasized over the don’t when the game is taught. Also, a hot shooter on a crap table is pretty much as exciting as it gets in a casino. Don’t bettors experience the down side of that.

You're somewhat correct in saying that you need a line bet only when you hold the dice. The line bets are considered contract bets, meaning that by placing the bet, you’re "signing a contract" through the end of the roll. They do this because if you’re going to shoot the dice, they want you to be invested in the outcome (if you’re just playing prop bets, you aren’t invested in the point.)

So, while it is an option to play the way you mention in your question, it’s a much higher negative expectation than some may have thought. All the experts agree that you’d be missing out on the best bet on the table if you skip over the pass/don't pass. Most importantly, odds is the only bet you'll find that has exactly 0% house advantage, so remember to take/lay those odds no matter which side you’re on!