Q:
As a follow up to today's craps odds question, and someone who takes the odds frequently, any idea why a locals joint like the South Point or a downtown spot like California, would limit players to double odds in craps? Sure, we've come to expect that from the likes of Steve Wynn, and I suspect it will only grow and grow on the strip, but I was quite surprised to see this in the aforementioned local-type casinos. Why would they be less accommodating than say, the big boys at the Caesars and MGM corporate outfits that bank on tourists not caring?
A:
[Editor's Note: This answer is written by Andrew Uyal, our QoD contributor from inside the casino industry.]
I don't think they're banking so much on people not caring. I think they're taking it a step farther and banking on people playing there even if they do care.
The typical official-sounding answer to why a local joint would decrease crap odds to double goes something like: "It reduces the volatility of the game." Or, "We're trying to increase stability." What this means is that offering big odds doesn't greatly affect the expected win. But it does affect volatility (the swings).
Here's an easy example. The expected hold for both double odds and 100x odds is around 10%. In a dice game with double odds an actual hold of between 7%-13% would be normal, well within the normal range of 10% give or take a few points on either side. But take that same dice table and change the odds to 100x? Now, the expected hold could be anywhere from -10% up to +20%, easy. Though the end result over time should be about the same as double odds, the difference in volatility is enormous. So offering 2x odds provides for a much more stable expectation.
Unofficially, and I'm saying this as pure speculation, but with experience with these types of places, it could be a number of other things. For one, they could have taken a big hit by a player or players with big odds and had a knee-jerk reaction to it, as small places that sweat the money might do.
Another possibility is an influx of new dealers. To touch on my answer in QoD 6/8/17 about dealer mistakes, such errors at craps can be minimized by reducing the odds, which as I said, doesn't change the hold, just lowers the possibility of major mistakes.
Does this lower the incentive to play craps there? Absolutely. But like Steve Wynn, South Point also has a firm grip on the demographic and the majority of people who play there will continue to do so. Wynn has its affluent tourists. South Point has the rodeo, NASCAR, and a large number of other events.
Perhaps the main reason is big-odds multiples tend to be used as marketing hooks by casinos that want to upgrade their image in order to attract serious dice players and boost the drop (see QoD 5/5/17 for a similar discussion) or that might be struggling to draw customers; the locals casinos don't need to step out on any limbs to retain the loyalty of their bedrock gamblers.
Which is most likely the reason, when I contacted South Point, that I was told they've had double points at craps for a long time. So this is a decision that was made in the past, in favor of stability.
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