A growing number of slot machines use the same concept of visually adding to something (fish, pigs, bowls, etc.), triggering the bonus once full. As slot machines are based on random number generators where prior spins have no impact on the current spin, are these machines really just new gimmicks to entice customers to continue playing in hopes of hitting the bonus? Or is there some correlation between past and future spins? I think it is a gimmick given that bonuses are sometimes given on even relatively empty items.
[Editor's Note: This QoD allows us to introduce our new slot expert, Ben Rosenthal. Ben's full-time job is "grinding" bonus slots or, in technical terms, exploiting “variable state” or “accumulator” machines, in which the games are abandoned by unknowledgeable players while they’re in a “state” to return more than 100%. Ben is among a new breed of slot APs and his book, soon to be published by us, is tentatively titled Breaking the Slot Code -- Beat the Machines through Advantage Play. In this answer, Ben explains that these accumulator machines are anything but a gimmick, as long as you know exactly what you're doing.]
Excellent observation and question, though the "once-full" aspect isn't always what we're looking for.
Yes, the "pigs" example is as straightforward as you suggest, in a popular game called Rich Little Piggies, where the blue pig is the only one of the three you should focus on. But some slot machines display, for example, various bowls that fill up with coins that have no bearing on how close you are to triggering a bonus. In fact, if you click on the rules tab of the slot machine, you can sometimes see that in writing.
Still, you're on the right track. A growing number of slots, considered advantage-play machines, can and do reach a point in their cycles at which they provide a positive return to the player. A number of APs seek out such machines and carve out a living for themselves, playing them at optimal times. I should know. I do this myself all over the country and on cruise ships.
Often, the first question someone asks me is, why would any casino allow something like this to happen? The short answer is these types of machines will still provide the casino with the same return as any other over a large sample. These AP machines have also proved more effective at prying money from the player base than your run-of-the-mill one-armed bandit.
An example I like to give is Ocean Magic, one of the earliest of the AP machines. As you note in your first sentence, some spins will provide that visual cue: bubbles, in this case. If you have a bubble on the screen in any of the first three columns — as long as it's not at the top of the reels — the game is in an "advantage state." The more bubbles you have, the greater the advantage, but all you need is one in the first three reels for the edge. Now, you can still lose on some spins when the game is positive, just like you can win on spins when the machine is in a negative state, but you'll come out ahead when your "sample size" grows, i.e., play more and more games when they're positive.
With Ocean Magic and all advantage-play machines, the trick is this: You need to be a finder, not a builder. If you use your own money to "build" a machine into advantage-play territory, you'll lose long term. That's why if you're observant, you might have noticed people in a casino bouncing from machine to machine, clicking a few buttons before moving on. They aren't doing that randomly; they're looking for advantage plays and leaving if the machine isn't at a favorable point in its build.
Yes, all machines of the past were "based on random number generators where prior spins have no impact on the current spin." But slot manufacturers correctly reasoned they could shear the player sheep a little more with these newer slots, where even a novice gambler can see they're progressing toward something, with each spin the continuation of the one prior.
To hopefully clear one thing up, it's not always a bonus at the end of the rainbow when I'm getting ready to play a machine. Sure, sometimes the bonus is the only thing I'm chasing on a particular machine, such as with Regal Riches or Prosperity Pearl. If I get exceedingly lucky and hit a bonus, that's great. But it's not the game plan going in and I'm no more likely to get a bonus on a favorable slot screen than a dry one for that AP machine and many others. To go back to our Ocean Magic example, I usually play it for just a few spins in the base game, hoping to net a bit of a profit.
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