2011-09-30
I've been looking at the data on sportsinsights.com (the free section) to see how the public is betting NFL games. My question is, why doesn't the imbalance of betting action correlate better to line movements? For example, a Packers-Niners game late last season opened at GB -9.5 and 80% of the money came in on the Packers during the week. But the line went down to -9. I understand that lines move in response to smart money, but with this level of imbalance I would think that the line would go up, not down. There are plenty of examples like this every week. I'm very curious to get your insights.