Question of the Day - 08 February 2021

First, let's define the term. In the immortal words of Mick Schumacher, "A bad beat doesn’t always mean that the drummer is off." (We'll return to Mick in a moment.)

In gambling, a bad beat occurs when a bet that's statistically likely to win doesn't. In other words, the opposing side, which is statistically likely to lose, hits a lucky card or two (poker) or scores an improbable touchdown, basket, run, or goal (sports betting) to win unexpectedly -- and, to the loser, tragically. 

Simple enough. Where it gets complicated, as your question accurately states, is in the qualifications, which can vary significantly. 

Which brings us back to Mick Schumacher.

His brand-new book, Dollars and Sense -- Winning Ways of Low-Stakes Limit Poker, goes into deep detail about the qualifications. Why? As Mick tells us, "At low-stakes poker, the standard house commission and the take-out for promotions, such as bad-beat jackpots, along with dealer tips, often add up to 20% or more of each pot. If nine or 10 players sit at the table with $100 each, the house and dealers will have all the money in about five or six hours."

Thus, it's very important to not only be aware of promotional jackpots like bad beats, but also know how to play properly to qualify for them. As in the case at Santa Fe Station recently, it's a huge windfall for numerous players when such promotional jackpots are hit.

In Mick's description, "The more remote the chance of it happening, the larger the progressive jackpot is likely to be. I’ve seen some jackpots in the $200,000 to $500,000 range when the qualification was four-of-a-kind beaten by a higher four-of-a-kind, or a straight flush beating a higher straight flush or four-of-a-kind, with further requirements that the hole cards of both the winner and loser be either a pocket pair or play as part of the straight flush.

"Some places have smaller jackpots for which the qualifications are less difficult and pay smaller amounts, for example, a full house of aces over 10s or better beaten by four-of-a-kind or better, with both players’ hole cards being used. This kind of jackpot is often a progressive amount starting at $5,000.

"I was at a table once when two fives came on the flop, then a jack on both the turn and river. Seat seven turned over J,J, for quad jacks, while seat three turned over 5,5 for quad fives. Quads were beaten by quads, earning a $59,000 jackpot." Mick's table share was slightly more than $2,000. 

He gives another example. "The criteria were a full house of aces over jacks or better beat by four-of-a-kind or better, with both players having pocket pairs or two cards to a straight flush and both cards playing."

The qualifications for the promotional jackpots like bad beats are posted in the poker or card room, but plenty of low-stakes players either don't know about them to begin with or even if they do, they pay no attention to them.

In Dollars and Sense, Mick writes, "Even though winning a jackpot is mostly the result of luck, the rest is knowing how to play it. You can easily mess up and void it. If you show your hand prematurely, you talk about the possibility of a jackpot during the hand, the pot size isn’t large enough to qualify, you have your chips in a rack on the table, or a player doesn’t fold a hand that’s better than the best qualifying losing hand, you could nullify the jackpot."

Here's Mick's description of the bad-beat jackpot in which he was involved.

"After eight hours of play, I was dealt two red aces. Unknown to me at that time, Marcie was dealt two black queens. The flop came with 7 and Q of hearts and the ace of spades, giving us both sets. The turn was the 3 of clubs and the river was the queen of diamonds. I’d been playing the hand soft and just calling, hoping to hit the fourth ace in a quads promotion. When the queen gave me a full house and no chance for quads, I bet. Marcie raised. I re-raised. Marcie called, saying, 'Maybe you have it.'

"I said, 'Maybe you have it.'

"As we both turned over our cards, we saw that we did have it! Quad queens beat my A,A,A,Q,Q!

"My reporting of this may appear to be without emotion, but the adrenaline rush was enormous. I was shaking and could barely talk for an hour while they reviewed the videotape and did what they do to confirm the jackpot. My share for losing the hand was $17,572. Marcie’s share was $10,543; she also hit the quads jackpot for another $400. The table share was $7,029 divided by six players, each getting $1,172." 

Needless to say, we highly recommend Dollars and Sense for recreational and even higher-stakes poker players. It's based on a decade-plus of personal experience (by Mick, a CPA, and his significant other Sharon, both winning low-stakes players) and meticulous research. But beyond that, it's a great read, with an entertaining and thoughtful narrative that is full of insight, humor, and applications for life. Available on Amazon at the link above for $9.99 Kindle and $14.99 paperback.