Question of the Day - 13 June 2022

[Editor's Note: This question was a natural for the author of our book 20/20 Sports Betting, Logan Fields -- for whom baseball betting has been "berry berry good."]

At first blush, this seems like a coin flip. Add up the runs scored in a baseball game and one would think half the time you'll get an Even number and half the time Odd.

If this were the case, taking Even runs scored on every MLB game at +115 (which is available at multiple outs!) would lead to vast riches.

But surely something is amiss here, as sports betting is not that easy. Truth be known, betting total runs Even at +115 is a horrible play, and would lead an Even bettor straight to the poor house.

Amiss is that Odd games are much more common. Every one-run game in baseball will have an Odd total. If you recall from second-grade math class, adding an odd and even number always gives you an odd sum. From 2018 to 2021, 27% percent of all MLB games were one-run games. This is just way too many Odd games for Even bettors to overcome.

Part of the reason for so many one-run games is when a game is tied in the late innings, teams often play for one run, figuring that should be enough for the win. Rather than swinging for the fences, teams play more “small ball,” with hitters more prone to attempt sacrifice bunts to get that precious one run in scoring position.

Perhaps even more significant, when a home team scores a run in the 9th or extra inning to go ahead, the game ends immediately on the odd number, even though technically the home team could have scored more runs to make it an Even total. One exception is that when a homer is hit, all runs count.      

These factors contribute to a true line of -144 betting on the Odd. So if you're looking for value on this proposition, you're much more likely to find it betting the Odd side, such as the following, which would be pretty sweet if you could find it. 

TOTAL RUNS

ODD -125

EVEN +105 

And by all means look for it, as an inexperienced linesmaker could certainly make the mistake of not fully understanding how great the Odd bias is.

The Odd bias also extends to NFL football, as games are decided by 3 points more often than any other number. The bias is not as great, however; the true line for a game ending on an Odd number in the NFL is -111 over the last seven seasons. Lines are set accordingly and it’s rare, if ever, to find value on this play in the NFL.