What is the best bet for your matchplay coupons?
Matchplay coupons double the payoff on even-money winners. With a $10 matchplay coupon, for example, you lay down the coupon along with $10 of your own money and if you win, you're paid $20. Your expected value (EV) on a matchplay coupon is slightly less than half of its face value. On a $5 matchplay, your EV is roughly $2.45.
As for the best bet, in a magazine story years ago, advantage player extraordinaire James Grosjean wrote, "The best games are the ones that have high payoff odds, such as the 35-1 from hitting a single number on a roulette wheel. To extract the most value from the coupon, it's best to take a big swing, get paid in full when you win, but give up a worthless coupon when you lose (which is most of the time when betting a single number on the roulette wheel). Betting a color on roulette produces a value of $4.21 (for a $10 bet, so $42.10 for $100), while the longshot number yields $8.68—more than double the expected profit."
So longshots are best, but what about matchplays that stipulate even money bets only. According to Grosjean, your best even-money bet is a blackjack game dealing specific favorable rules, including late surrender. Since this game will be hard to come by, the most practical bet with the highest return is the player bet in baccarat, which has an expected profit of $48 -- followed, in order, by craps, blackjack, and roulette.
