Q:
If football is played in empty stadiums, why would anyone bet on these games? Home-field advantage and fans can change the psyche of teams and swing momentum quickly. How much of a degenerate would someone have to be to bet on basically what amounts to a televised scrimmage? (I'm saying this from a standpoint of having season tickets for 29 years.) Also, will this have any effect on the big season-long betting contests?
A:
[Editor's Note: This answer is written by Logan Fields, author of our upcoming book 20/20 Sports Betting. These are, of course his opinions.]
If you put players on a field with cameras rolling, I don't really see a sharp decline in wagering handle. I believe any decreases in wagering will likely mirror decreases in viewership. So if ratings are down 25% for the NBA playoffs, look for betting volume to see a similar decline.
Basically, if people are watching, people are betting. And I think these games, even without spectators, will be much more than "televised scrimmages." Call me naïve, but these are their jobs on the line and many athletes will be fighting to keep them. Wins, losses, and player statistics will count -- regardless of whether or not fans are in the stands.
I disagree that anyone who bets on these games must be a degenerate. Millions of fans will be watching, just not in the arenas and stadiums. So the fundamentals of sports gambling will remain the same. The absence of fans will create a few intangibles that will need to be factored in and I believe professional bettors will be chomping at the bit, confident that they'll figure out the significance of these intangibles faster than the general public.
I can't imagine there would be any differences in the season-long contests if a full season is planned.
You didn't ask, but it seems to me to be logical to comment on how individual sports will do without fans. I think those in enclosed arenas will suffer the most. The NBA and NHL feed off the energy of fans more than outdoor sports and I predict they'll see the sharpest declines. The NFL will be fine, but college football may suffer a bit more. What's a Michigan home game without hearing their fight song? MLB will pretty much be unaffected, as their games are often played in half-empty stadiums anyway, and the crowds are very laid back, really only coming to life in October for the playoffs. NASCAR and PGA should be business as usual with negligible effects on viewership and betting volume.
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