What Are the Odds That Brightline Will Be Done by the 2028 Olympics?

Another idea for a high-speed train to Las Vegas. This time, Brightline isn’t planning to make it to Los Angeles, but they are planning to have it running by the Olympics in four years. Since they haven’t started building it yet, what do you think the odds are that it will be completed in four years?

You sound skeptical. Truth be told, so are we.

Although Los Angeles-to-Las Vegas train service has been wished for and touted for decades, not until Brightline West did the steel meet the track. Of getting Olympiad visitors from Sin City to the City of Angels in 150 minutes (Brightline says 130), the Las Vegas Review-Journal wrote, “That’s the dream kickoff scenario for Brightline West.”

When it comes to mass transit, however, some people’s dream can become others’ nightmare — and we say that as fans of efficient public transportation. California rail projects have been moving at a snail’s pace, plagued by exponential cost overruns. Perhaps the enthusiastic sponsorship of the federal government (for now) will make a difference for Brightline. It's certainly defying the odds by attempting what so many others have found impossible.

As the R-J quantified it, “More than 70,000 tons of rail, 2.4 million tons of ballast track, and 750,000 railroad ties will be used in the construction of the track.” Whew. The budget is $12 billion, with Uncle Sam chipping in $3.75 billion. Private-equity funds, not always the most generous of spenders, are being counted on to defray the rest of the cost, along with bond issues.

The Brightline route will parallel I-15, terminating at Las Vegas Boulevard and Warm Springs Road.

Since four years are budgeted for construction, making Brightline West operational (it broke ground on April 22) will leave little or no room for error. To their credit, the owners of the planned line have already successfully built an intercity rail route in southern Florida. Of course, the flat-as-a-mackeral topography in the Sunshine State is less challenging than that of the Mojave Desert and daunting Cajon Pass. Also, the projected cost of Brightline West has risen from $8 billion to $12 billion over the last four years. So we’re not dealing with an exact science.

If Brightline West succeeds, including the 50-mile-or-so link to Los Angeles, extensions to Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and even Denver are being considered. All of that would be beneficial, of course to Las Vegas.

Olympics aside, getting this thing done would be a huge boost, especially for some of the motorists who currently suffer from I-15 gridlock on weekends.

Bottom line: There are plenty of doubters about this rail line, so color us skeptical it can get done on time and budget. But we're also optimistic that it will, eventually, get done.

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AyeCarambaPoker Aug-31-2024

Is a mackerel flat?

Slightly rounded surely?

thebeachbum Aug-31-2024

Optimism

Y'all are REALLY optimistic to believe it will actually get done.  I am optimistic that a lot of money will be make by a few folks.

asaidi Aug-31-2024

Forst high speed rail line in US

Since this will be the very first high speed rail line in the US (as far as I know), I would be a lot more optimistic about it if the company had already built a high speed rail line in another country (their website doesn't mention any), if they have employees that have worked for other companies that have built them, or if they are consulted with a company that has already built a high speed rail line.  Without any prior experience, they don't what to expect.

Mufasa Thedog Aug-31-2024

Expensive

I read somewhere that Brightline would have to charge $400 each way to recover their costs.  Good luck with that.

In Florida, on the Miami to Orlando route, it takes the same amount of time to drive as it does to ride.  That's because there are a lot of stops, and the train doesn't get up to full speed.

Peter Bijlsma Aug-31-2024

High Speed Rail

California HS Rail is a disaster. They spent billions on studies and hearings with not an inch of track in place. First section will be constructed between Merced and Bakersfield in the Central Valley. Who wants to ride in the middle of nowhere? But it was the only place where nobody objected.

Brightline West has all the permits and  a good part of the funding in place. Being mostly in the I-15 median won't cause too many complaints from people who don't want it in their backyard. 

Sponsorship picked up drastically after they added the connection to the Rancho Cucamonga station where it connects to Metrolink instead of terminating in Victorville.

Ticket prices will be higher than the lowest discount airline tickets, but without the hassle of waiting, going through TSA, cost of getting to and from the airport or paid parking it's worth the extra money. And you can walk around in the train, there will be comfortable seats, real food and a party car with a bar.

Peter Bijlsma Aug-31-2024

Additional Funding

They should put a collection box at the  agricultural checkpoint at I-15 by Primm on Sunday where people can drop off the casino chips and TiTo tickets they forgot to cash. At that point they will very motivated to contribute even some extra cash for being in a fast train instead of waiting for hours in their car. And they have to stop there anyway.

Hoppy Aug-31-2024

Re:Bijlsma

Add cars in front, and back for bands!

Lucky Sep-03-2024

Eyes on the money

Any time one of these gets funding from the feds, its never really accounted for.  How much of that ends up in the coffers of the prevailing political party?  Look at all the "grants" to those "green energy" supposed producers that went belly up.  No one ever followed the money.  A percentage of it makes its way to a political parties coffers.  Look at the latest one, 3 or 4 BILLION for a few EV chargers.  Where did all of that money go?  I am not favoring either party, they both do it.  But no matter what, we lose. I forgot who said it, or the exact statement, but when the federal treasury can be used to by votes, democracy is over.  Looks like its coming.

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