Now that the latest Broadway theatrical production Bat Out of Hell has closed, I'm wondering if any "musical" type of production has a chance for a long-range residency on the Strip. I remember decades ago going to see a version of Gypsy at the Plaza (must have been early '80s) and since have seen productions such as Mamma Mia, The Lion King, Phantom of the Opera, Rock of Ages, Million Dollar Quartet, Hairspray and Jersey Boys. These days, I occasionally get lucky and see a production at the the Smith Center or catch a short run at a resort like I did with Bat Out of Hell in October. Is that the future of stage productions for Vegas?
Based on your long experience, you pose a perceptive question.
The trend for Broadway in Vegas has been moving away from the Strip for quite some time and it was greatly accelerated by the Smith Center’s opening in March 2012. Its Reynolds Hall was designed with large-scale Broadway shows in mind and they can run there anywhere from a week to a month. That’s a far more sustainable business model than putting down roots at a Strip resort, which used to entail multi-year commitments and customizing of the theatrical space.
Now the bus-and-truck shows can brake at the Smith Center and if the show flops (it rarely does), the exposure is minimal. If it’s a hit, it can always be brought back somewhere down the road.
Making a Broadway-style show the tentpole of your casino entertainment regime is a hugely expensive and risky commitment. Once it’s there, you’re stuck with it, as MGM Resorts discovered the hard way with Viva Elvis and R.U.N., two Cirque du Soleil bombs that forced MGM to take a massive write-off, and Caesars Entertainment learned with Bat out of Hell and others.
Even if a Strip-based musical is popular, there’s no guarantee it will break even financially. Phantom of the Opera played at the Venetian for six years and still lost money, mainly because casino owner Sheldon Adelson wanted big upfront payments rather than a percentage of the gate. Nor does lightning strike twice. ABBA-powered musical Mamma Mia ran at Mandalay Bay for five years and 11 months … but when it was resurrected at the Tropicana it died a speedy death.
Then there are those big-ticket shows that have neither longevity nor box-office clout. Chicago, which inaugurated Mandalay Bay’s theater, was a money-loser. Luxor fared worse still with Hairspray (which it had taken in preference to Wicked), a benchmark bomb in Vegas theater. Then there was Notre Dame de Paris, which opened Paris and closed soon thereafter.
You mentioned seeing Gypsy at downtown’s Plaza, back when Glitter Gulch was the center of the action. The Plaza’s is a relatively small venue, easier to fill than the gaping showrooms of the Strip casinos, where management needs to put thousands of bodies in seats every night.
Except for Jersey Boys, which was a durable performer at two different casinos over eight years, most of the shows you mention would fall into the succes d’estime category, winning critical respect, but not financial success. The Lion King didn’t have the expected durability, eventually making way for Cirque du Soleil’s Michael Jackson extravaganza, One, while Million Dollar Quartet had a distinctly done-on-the-cheap flavor to it.
If Broadway on Broadway itself entails playing to tough crowds, Broadway in Vegas’ economics may be even more daunting. New York City’s Theater District is one of its top tourist draws. In Las Vegas, theater is a sideshow to the crap tables, high-priced restaurants, and nightclubs. Also, with the exception of extremely rare phenomena such as Mamma Mia, almost all musicals are cut down into the intermission-less 90-minute "tab" format, meaning you’re getting cheated out of the full Broadway experience despite paying Broadway prices.
Not even jukebox musicals are a safe bet, as the financial troubles of Bat Out of Hell indicate. Nor did the occasional presence of creator Lin-Manuel Miranda keep Freestyle Love Supreme from folding at the Venetian last month following an abortive 11-week run.
No, Broadway on the Strip is an almost-golden era of the early 2000s that we'll look back on with nostalgia and a tinge of regret. It's likely not to be repeated.
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