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Question of the Day - 09 July 2020

Q:

Is there any information about any increase in new COVID-19 cases since the Las Vegas casinos reopened? It's been several weeks, plenty of time to see any uptick in new cases, although I imagine that many or most new cases would show up in tourists' home states, not in Nevada.

A:

Well, not necessarily. Not only is there more than a mere uptick in cases, quite a few of them are, as the saying goes, staying in Las Vegas.

This is, as you undoubtedly know, a fast-moving target that changes by the minute, is reported daily, and has required more updating than any answer in QoD history.  

When casinos reopened on June 4, there was already a slight upward trend in reported cases. On June 14, 10 days into the casino reopening, southern Nevada had 132 cases per day, for a seven-day moving average of 193. By comparison, on June 25 when Gov. Steve Sisolak made universal mask-wearing mandatory, those numbers had spiked at 749 and 480, respectively.

The sharp upward slope has continued to trend almost vertically until hitting a peak since the outbreak on July 2 (985 new cases in the state, with 780 of them in southern Nevada). It could be sheer coincidence that an influx of gamblers happened to parallel a steep rise in reported cases — positive tests having ebbed on May 18 and slowly risen thereafter — but that may be pushing mere chance a bit far.

On July 3, 679 new cases were reported in Clark County, the fifth-largest increase in a single day.

On July 7, Clark County recorded 836 new cases, well above the seven-day average of 596, and 11 additional deaths, also much higher than the one-week average of nearly four. 

On Tuesday, the number of Nevada's positive coronavirus tests was up for the 20th consecutive day.

Indeed, while updating this answer yesterday, we saw a chart in the New York Times that ranks Nevada as having the ninth worst outbreak in the world: 1,700 new cases per million residents. (Arizona, right next door, is the number-one worst with 3,300, followed by Florida with 2,700 and South Carolina with 2,300. So much for hot temperatures knocking this thing down. According to the chart, the U.S. has 15 of the 25 worst outbreaks.)

Hospitalizations as well are rising, approaching the peak numbers seen in mid-April again; on Tuesday, the health district reported 37 additional hospitalizations, more than double the daily average of just over 17 for the preceding week.

Nevada also has the highest transmission rate in the nation: Every infected person will pass the disease on to 1.5 others, per the latest data. “When the rate average is below one, then cases should go down, though only 14 states plus Washington, D.C., are reporting this average,” reports 3 News Las Vegas.

Nevada is also on the list of states from which visitors are required to self-quarantine for 14 days if they travel there. New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Hawaii, along with the city of Chicago, have instructed residents and visitors to quarantine for 14 days after returning from COVID-19 hot spots, including Nevada. If you live in any of those places, you'll be expected to stay out of circulation when you return home after visiting Las Vegas.

In short, if you live here, there’s not much to be done except take every reasonable precaution and hope the numbers start moving southward again. If you’re from out of state, well, a lot of visitors are arriving daily, with tens of thousands over the holiday weekend just past. But at least you know the chance you'll be taking if your plans include Las Vegas in the near future. 

 

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Comments

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  • jstewa22 Jul-09-2020
    Thanks
    Thanks.  We just cancelled our late July trip, first trip that we'll miss in 15 years.  COVID-19 is a hell of a big bullet to dodge for seven days, though.

  • David Miller Jul-09-2020
    Better safe than sorry
    I have rescheduled my next visit to Vegas 4 times since April and have a July/August trip scheduled that, if things do not improve I will reschedule.I usually visit 3-4 times yearly - Vegas is my favorite destination. With the way people are conducting themselves presently, I don't foresee Vegas being fit to visit for a long time. T

  • rokgpsman Jul-09-2020
    The anti-facemask phenoma
    I guess it's an American culture thing, if you watch international news reports like BBC and others you see much more facemask wearing by the public. Places like Japan, New Zealand, S Korea and others are very good about it, including the younger adults that are crucial to controlling the infection rate. For whatever reasons many Americans have resisted facemasks, although science and medical experts in every country continue to say facemasks are very helpful. Reminds me of the smoking situation, warnings from doctors and printed on cigarette packages clearly state the danger but many people ignore it. The way things are going covid-19 will continue for quite a while. The only thing that will get Americans to wear facemasks is a requirement by businesses to enter, or the worry about a favorite bar or restaurant getting closed down if patrons are careless.

  • Mark Elslager Jul-09-2020
    Saw this coming
    Had a trip planed in May then rescheduled for the middle of next month.  Got flights for $48 each way from Chicago.  Lowest I ever paid.  Along with comped rooms this would be a win win!  My buddy who travels to Vegas with me, is head of the pharmacy at Rush hospital in Chicago.  They were told all employees there if they travel to Vegas they will have to self quarantine for 14 days without pay. This is updated every week but with only 4 weeks before our trip it does not look like anything will change.  Time to reschedule I guess!

  • John Sullivan Jul-09-2020
    Many not complying with governor order
    I just returned last night from a week’s trip to Las Vegas. I was really disappointed in the number of people in the casinos that were either not wearing or improperly wearing (not covering the nose) a mask. This also included Las Vegas Metro Police which were seen in two casinos and the airport that had no mask on at all. While not all, most were younger people that were socializing, hugging and sharing drinks. I watched the pit people just about go crazy telling gamblers over and over to put the mask on properly when they were not actively drinking.  No table games allowed smoking at the table in the 4 casinos I visited. I just hope that my frequent hand washing, using sanitizer and constant mask wearing prevents me from becoming infected by the inconsiderate people that were around me. From what I saw it is no problem understanding why the number of infections is increasing.

  • mofromto Jul-09-2020
    Face mask phenomena
    I have been going to Las Vegas at least twice a year since 1973 and very sadly now cannot for the foreseeable future. I live in Ontario, Canada where wearing a face mask in any indoor space is mandatory and where social distancing is respected and we have watched our infection rates decrease steadily. I don't understand why the anti-maskers won't take this virus seriously and wear a mask when it can save lives including your own.

  • Gene Brown Jul-09-2020
    Thank you!
    It’s difficult nowadays to find anyone who is willing to tell it just as it is, but your facts shared herein potentially, you have saved at least one life. Hats off to LVA. You deserve a Public Service Award for this article.

  • Kevin Lewis Jul-09-2020
    Typical, and expected
    Vegas has always been about acting irresponsibly. Therefore, expecting otherwise of visitors is a fool's errand. Add in the fact that for some idiots, not wearing a mask is a political statement, and Vegas is just one long, slow superspreader event. I'm sure, as well, that enforcement of mask mandates is and will be very lax. God forbid the party hearty people should be told what to do.

  • Alex Jul-09-2020
    Thanks!
    Interesting that the usual conspiracy theorists have not weighed in . Hard to argue with cold, hard facts. Thanks for the facts - very much appreciated. Be safe everyone - and wear a mask!

  • VegasROX Jul-09-2020
    Testing and reporting
    From what I understand, your test RESULTS are reported in the county (no matter the state) of your residence, so visitors who might get tested while in Vegas, those results won't be reported AS Vegas results.  That being said, if COVID were to be contracted in Vegas, it means the entire plane could be in the "infected zone" and bring the virus through at least 2 airports and then to whatever part of the country they live in. To Kevins comment about enforcement of masks, etc, I think it's pretty lax all over the country. Here where I live, I'd say about 50% of the people are wearing correctly, about 15% either not covering their nose/mouth/both with a mask being on their face area and the other 35% just not caring either if they get it or they pass it on to others.  My wife works a COVID unit at her hospital and if they would show the suffering some of those folks go through (before many of them pass), it might convince folks that they do NOT want to go through that hell! Wear a mask!!

  • rodfan Jul-09-2020
    Thanks from me too!
    We also visit a couple times a year.  I will wait to cancel our planned trip at the end of September, but my husband already thinks it’s a no.  This was a very well documented article, and I applaud the entire staff. Thanks again

  • steve crouse Jul-09-2020
    So many questions
    Increased testing couldn't have anything to do with increased infections, now could it?
    Increased patients in hospital for procedures that were delayed because of the perceived lack of beds that happen to test positive wouldn't be classified as Covid patients, now would they?
    Mortalities caused by other underlying conditions, but test positive for covid wouldn't be classified as covid deaths, now would they?
    So many questions with very few accurate answers lead me to believe something else is afoot. 

  • Jared Jul-09-2020
    I'm coming!
    I've got a trip to Vegas planned in 9 days.  Unless I'm told I'm not allowed to go, I'll be there come hell or high water.

  • rokgpsman Jul-09-2020
    Suspicious minds
    @Steve
    You can have an underlying medical condition, like diabetes or heart disease, and still live a long time. Many do. But if that person then gets infected with covid-19 and has respiratory problems they put you on a ventilator in ICU for a few weeks and maybe you die. That death is correctly attributed to covid-19. If you hadn't caught the virus you'd still be alive with your original underlying medical condition. The virus makes the difference. This isn't hard to understand. I don't think people dying from car wrecks or gunshots are getting incorrectly classified as covid deaths. Even if the USA media was behind all of this for politics reasons that doesn't explain how every other country in the world believes the covid deaths in their country are real, our petty USA conspiracies don't carry over to other countries. If you believe MSNBC or CNN is causing the covid deaths in Europe, Australia and Asia to be reported wrong you are in denial.  But be sure to vote this November.

  • Vickar Jul-09-2020
    COVID-19
    Let's keep it simple folks!  MASK-IT or CASKET!!!

  • Hoppy Jul-09-2020
    Re: Zilinek
    You should copyright that

  • Dave in Seattle. Jul-09-2020
    Personal protection.
    I ordered a couple of these today:
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/after-travel-precautions.html
    FACE SHIELD.
    

  • Charlene Thomas Jul-09-2020
    who's ruling this country
    You hard left people,the government likes you puppets. there was a Dr. who  had a patient die of a head wound, was told to report it as Virus related.get some Vitamin D, sunshine, get out of the A.C.

  • PackerBackerAZ Jul-09-2020
    not nearly enough
    I live in Mohave County AZ and, like Nevada, don't do nearly enough testing for Covid-19. The vast majority of those being tested are symptomatic or have been exposed to someone testing positive. There is a lack of testing supplies in this country! The states are all in competition for testing supplies thanks to a lack of urgency from the federal government. Without adequate testing the numbers will continue to be bad. That leaves it up to the people to do whatever they can to mitigate the spread of Covid-19. The worst case scenario is closing down the states again. That aint never going to happen again!! That means everyone needs to wear a mask in enclosed public places like bars and casinos. Adhere to the social distancing guidelines and wash your hands before you return from public places if possible. You either care enough about others to do this or you don't. It really is just that simple. Not nearly enough seem to care!

  • tikithecat Jul-09-2020
    A failed re-opening
    It took a lot of guts for Gov. Sisolak to close Nevada's main source of revenue and biggest employer, the casinos, in mid-March. Unfortunately, the sacrifice that brought has mostly been wasted by a botched re-opening designed by gaming regulators. The biggest mistake was not requiring universal mask-wearing from the outset. The risk casino employees were forced to endure was unconscionable. A masking requirement should have been supported by bans on smoking and drinking on the casino floors. If smokers can refrain for 5 hours on a cross-country flight, they can step outside to smoke during a health crisis. Smoking and drinking are inconsistent with mask wearing, which must be near-universal in a crowded indoor environment. Sorry, this is not a matter of personal choice, any more than stopping at stop signs or signing up for the draft during a time of war. Some problems cannot be solved unless everyone is on board. 

  • Ray Jul-09-2020
    Thanks Charlene, you're a real prize
    130,000 plus deaths is a left wing conspiracy. If we had only listened to your hero and opened everything up on Easter, this would have all gone away. Methinks the "puppets" are those of you who follow all the misinformation of the current administration.

  • David Villadsen Jul-09-2020
    David Villadsen
    A lot depends on if the casinos are really enforcing a masking policy. If they are, casinos could be the safest places to hang out.  My wife is an infection control professional and while we're not going to Vegas soon, we are heading to the casinos in Tahoe in a few weeks. 

  • Duane Pfau Jul-09-2020
    maybe next year
     Been going to Vegas since 87 but will be skipping this year.  6hrs in a plane then dealing with the noncompliance with the safety rules by numerous vistors not worth the chance

  • James Mason Jul-09-2020
    lies about covid
    this is all about lying with statistics it turns out only 15% of icu beds nation wide have covid patients
    so the only trason to shut down eas to not overwhelhospitals with covid. lookks like icu is for people for normal problems. so sick yes but not deadly

  • Tim Miller Jul-29-2020
    Took the chance
    A buddy and I went to Vegas in late June for a long weekend.  Almost every single person working wore masks, and most folks in the casinos wore theirs properly.  We got home without incident, although I did mask up at work (we have had a skeleton crew working, and we had not been wearing masks) for two weeks after getting back.
    
    The buddy went back a couple weekends ago with another friend.  
    
    Given how seriously folks in Vegas were taking things, I'd go back again once this spiking calms a bit.. but I suspect that may not be for a while.  :-/