Is Dice Control Real? | Las Vegas Advisor

Is dice control real? I know there are workshops offered by practitioners of this skill and there are numerous books on the subject. But has anyone ever demonstrated the ability to control the dice in a casino setting with statistically significant results? As best I can tell, most observers (including the casino industry) believe that dice control is a scam, and its only supporters are those with a financial incentive. Can the QOD staff uncover any supporting evidence?

For those uninitiated in this controversial practice at craps, "dice control" is, actually, just as the term implies: a technique whereby the crapshooter can limit the randomness of a roll of the dice. This involves shooting the dice in such a way that they touch the back wall, thereby fulfilling the casino requirement for establishing the validity of the roll, but bounce off of it gently enough to land on numbers of the shooter's choosing. Obviously, if the shooter is successful in touching the back wall and maintaining control over the dice, he or she has a major advantage on the game.

We've shied away from this question, which we've received on occasion, for years, since many people believe that dice sliding is a valid advantage play (we know and like several of them) and no less a gambling luminary and pioneering advantage player than Stanford Wong, whom most old-timers will remember, gave some validity to the practice in his book Wong on Dice.

One 500-roll test was conducted by Wong and a Wong-approved shooter, "Little Joe," then Little Joe by himself conducted a second test of 1,000 rolls. And when we say "tests," we mean a lot of money was riding on them both. The first test seemed conclusive that the dice could be controlled; the second test was the opposite. When added up, the 1,500 rolls produced the number of 7s "almost exactly" to what randomness would predict. (To read all the details, Bob Dancer, who had a bet riding on the outcomes, wrote a blog post about it in 2011.) It should be noted that Wong later tempered his enthusiasm for dice sliding, based on slow-motion film showing just how bouncy and random dice hitting the back wall of a crap table actually are.

Michael "Wizard of Odds" Shackleford was on the no side of Dancer's yes bet. He also conducted his own tests. The sample size was too small to come to any definitive conclusion, but the results were "close to expectations in a random game." You can see that test here.

In our view, we tend to take the word of a veteran advantage player of our acquaintance, who took on dice control in a big way. He bought a regulation-sized crap table (not an unsubstantial investment in the high four figures) and spent, according to his account, "thousands of hours" practicing controlling the dice -- and this is a guy who isn't prone to any exaggeration at all. He tells us that you can control the dice, but there are too many variables in the table conditions, particularly the condition of the felt and what it's made of, the underlayment of vinyl padding, how old the bumper rubber is at the ends of the table, etc., all of which determine how bouncy the table is. (The less bouncy, of course, the better). Much to his disappointment, he concluded that it just wasn't worth the effort.

And then there's the age-old question of getting away with the money, even if you're successful at dice control. So we asked a couple of crap dealers about it.

Our old friend and Huntington Press author Barney Vinson, who was a crap dealer for too many years to count, told us, "I believe it is overly hyped. I saw people try it, but we always called it 'no roll.' If the shooter did it again, we took down his bets and went to a new shooter."

Admittedly, that was awhile ago, so we also asked our friend Dennis Conrad, who started in the casino business as a crap dealer (and worked his way up the ladder to become a mucky-muck executive). "I’ve heard that some advantage players claim craps is beatable with a controlled dice shot, so I’m not gonna say it isn’t possible. But what has occurred with this controlled-dice-shot fever, I believe, that is worse for the casinos (and avid crap players) is the epidemic of amateur dice setters who do nothing but slow up the game and cost the casino a ton in lost decisions per hour and irritate the hell out of the players, and the casinos tend to do nothing about it!"

If, as in Dennis' experience, at least some casinos do nothing about dice setters these days, that would lead us to believe that the casinos don't put much stock in the potential success of the technique.

Of course, you can make up your own minds about dice control by watching any number of YouTube videos demonstrating the technique. Here's one that's representative.

Finally, a recent incident that took place at the Cosmopolitan highlights several aspects of this discussion. A group of dice sliders has been accused of cheating the Cosmo at an Azure Roll to Win electronic crap table out of $226,000 over the course of six days in 2021. As far as we can tell from the sketchy reports, they slid the dice across the electronic table, apparently without dealer supervision, so they probably didn't bother hitting the back wall. Gaming Control Board finally caught up with the quartet in May, more than two years later.

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Kevin Lewis Jun-28-2023

My own experience

In a 2,500-roll trial on a former casino crap table (I had time on my hands; what can I say), I kept track of results in the attempt to NOT roll a 7. But I separated out the data. My goal was to minimize contact with the back wall (where the protruding diamond-shaped bumpers impart a random element) by a) spinning the dice along the axis of flight with a backhand flip and b) hitting the very end of the table (the flat portion) with my throw. I was only able to do that on about one of every five throws. So my 2,000 "unsuccessful" throws had 337 7's (almost exactly expectation), but my 500 "successful" throws had only 71 7's--significantly below expectation.
Tiny sample size, but I concluded that with sufficient skill and dexterity, it MIGHT be possible to control the dice to increase or decrease the number of 7's significantly. But I'm sure if you did it in real life, the casino would take you downstairs and remove all your internal organs. So whether it worked or not was moot.

Todd Sweet Jun-28-2023

Easy Answer

First of all "sliding" is not dice control.  Sliding dice is not allowed by casinos.

Dice control - throwing the dice in a manner that they still hit the wall, but trying to reduce the number of 7s - is not a real thing.  If it was a real thing, the casinos won't allow anyone to set the dice and throw in a controlled manner.  It would be treated just like card counting - you would be asked not to play.  Given that doesn't happen to the time wasters, you can feel secure in knowing it's just another superstition at the craps table.

Dave_Miller_DJTB Jun-28-2023

A detailed definition

I'm no expert, and frankly doubt if the skill is really possible to achieve,I get the feeling that a lot of people don't understand dice setting / dice control. And while many people use the terms interchangeably, they are not the same thing.

I wrote a lengthy post about it on the Wizard’s forum:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/37761-dice-control-dice-setting-defined/#post873036

Frankly, if you can influence the dice even just a little, you might be able to shift the odds a bit. But certainly not enough to provide the empirical proof that doubters, such as myself, would be looking for.

VegasVic Jun-28-2023

Waste of Time

Noobs watch videos or read books, "practice" for awhile and think they can control the dice.  All they do is slow down the game as mentioned above. Same as with card "counters". Then there are those who set the dice.  They aren't trying to control them other than they set them a certain way and think that affects the outcome.  The "V" is common.  I get superstition is a big part of gambling but some of these clowns take forever with their shooting routine.  Every. Single. Roll.  Maddening.

[email protected] Jun-28-2023

50,000 simulated rolls

I was one of the witnesses to 500 roll challenge carried out by Stanford Wong and Little Joe. After that I created a home-made craps table backstop. Using casino grade dice, I logged 50,000 rolls. While I was unable to reduce the occurrence of 7s, I was able to reduce the occurrence of 1 or 6 on each die to 6 standard deviations from random. By doing this, it increased the probability of rolling a 6 or 8 sufficiently to overcome the house odds.

[email protected] Jun-28-2023

Dice patterns

Although dice are difficult to control they do have patterns. Some logical some not. Not logical, when a beautiful lady rolls her first roll it is often a 7 on her first roll. People at the ends of the table have longer rolls than those at the sides of tables. Now some logic. There are 36 ways to roll the dice.  Say on each die 1 though 3 is low and 4 through 6 is high. There are 9 ways to roll low-low, 18 ways to roll low-high ( or high -low) and 9 ways to roll high-high. All hard ways are low-low or high- high.  So there is a 50/50 chance that with each roll that one will be high and one will be low.  So about every second or third roll one of the numbers on a die WILL repeat on the next roll. So say you roll a 3-3 ( low -low) and now we know one of those has a high likely hood of repeating so we pick the 3 to repeat. ( it’s low) and the odds are the other die will be high on the next roll. So hopping the 4-3, 5-3 and 6-3 ( low-high) are actually great hop bets. More to say. No space

Jon Anderson Jun-28-2023

dice control

phooey on such nonsense...there are just too many variables to even imagine such a thing being possible...dice setters are just doing a routine that helps them when it's their turn to shoot...
as others have mentioned, at least it manages to slow down the pace of the action to help stretch your bankroll...hot rolls, cold rolls, choppy rolls, all make craps what it is...a fun, challenging, unpredictable form of gambling entertainment not intended for the meek...dice control is a myth...

David Sabo Jun-28-2023

MAYBE

About 15 years ago I saw an older Asian guy playing on the smallest craps table I have ever seen at Ellis Island I believe.  This gentleman always was positioned on first base closest to the stockman. So he's playing on the shortest table ever and he only plays in the position closest to the wall he's shooting at. This guy shunned bathing and ate a diet filled with garlic, onions, and other fragrant items.  Obviously this caused the stickman to get as far away from him as possible. This allowed the fragrant shooter to lean even closer to the wall he's throwing at. He and he alone is the only person that I  thought had an advantage setting dice. Ellis Island put up with him as he keep his bets small.  I watched him quite a few times and I am convinced he held a small advantage on the tiny craps table.

[email protected] Jun-28-2023

Frank Scoblete?

I'm curious why this dude's name wasn't mentioned in this discussion as it is my understanding he was the "King" of dice control/influencing for years at the tables and won millions. I would think having him toss the dice 5000 or 10000 times would give you the "best" outcome possible for this test.

Carl LaFong Jun-28-2023

[email protected] ...

So you created a home-made craps table backstop and used casino grade dice. Was everything else about your table's construction materials identical to a real casino table? If not, then your results were just an insignificant crap shoot.

rokgpsman Jun-28-2023

Wasted effort

Think about it, if this was a possible skill you could acquire we'd hear of someone consistently winning big money at the craps table, enough that the casino would say no more play. Even if you could do this you wouldn't be able to use your talent because the casinos would prevent you from playing. They have to right to deny you from playing anywhere in the casino. For the most part people that believe they can control the dice are going to a lot of effort setting and throwing dice a certain way, then the result makes them think they've mastered the technique when the dice come up a winner, when actually it's just random good luck. You can practice for weeks on an authentic craps table you bought someplace, but every casino craps table has it's own personality as far as the felt, the hardness of the underlayment, the triangles on the far wall and other factors. Craps players are the most superstitious of all gamblers and they will believe in anything that promises to help them win.

AL Jun-28-2023

Wrong term

As with so many things in life, someone used a wrong term to label a phenomenon, and "everybody" went with it. Here, it is obvious that shooters ARE NOT controlling the dice, because they CAN'T.  What they are doing, at most, is INFLUENCING the dice. Those 2 terms are very different. If you controlled the dice, you either would make them produce a certain number (and maybe a certain composition of that number, such as 8 that is comprised of 4-4), or make them NOT produce a certain number, such as 7. Nobody can do either of those 2 things. At most, shooters can only make one or more results come up a bit less often or a bit more often, but I am not so sure that even THAT can be guaranteed.
BY THE WAY: What to you guys mean by "sliding"? Are you talking about pushing the dice across or along the table such that they do not tumble? That cannot happen if you "shoot" the dice; you would have to place the dice on the table and just push them. But the casino would not allow you to do that.

[email protected] Jun-30-2023

Carl LaFong

When I said I created a home-made backstop, I meant that I bought a pyramid rubber backstop from a casino supply store and attached it to a wooden board. The table itself was a folding table from Costco covered with a felt sheet similar to that in a casino. There is a large variance among the real craps tables, some more bouncy that others. Experienced dice setters seek less bouncy ones. The table used for 400+ rolls of the 500-roll challenge was particularly good. (We had to finish the challenge at another casino because one of the dice throwers got spooked when the pit started observing closely.)

Question of the Day - 28 June 2023

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