Question of the Day - 16 September 2018

No doubt, but no one that we know of is talking publicly about that. Yet.

The wet western winter of 2016-17 logged a seven-foot increase in the surface level of Lake Mead, from 1,075 feet (above sea level) to 1,082. That took all the pressure off of water managers for 2018 and 2019, but officials are becoming concerned again.  

The Bureau of Reclamation is forecasting that all the users of Lake Mead water will get their allotment through September 2019. But if the current precipitation pattern (actually, lack thereof) continues, the surface of Lake Mead could fall below 1,075 feet, which would trigger cutbacks that would go into effect in 2020.

The chances of a shortage in late 2019 are currently 52%, same as the Bureau announced last May. With any luck, next winter will provide enough snow in the intermountain west to avert cutbacks.

But the long-range forecast is for a prolonging of the current drought; coupled with continually rising demand, it’s not a question of if but when mandatory cutbacks will become necessary.

In the meantime, the focus of conservation efforts is on homeowners throughout Las Vegas. Since 2002, Las Vegas has cut its per capita water consumption by about 40% to around 123 gallons per person per day, but it still has some room to come down. In June, Los Angeles' mayor’s office reported daily water consumption at about 102 gallons per capita. And San Francisco customers average around 76 gallons per day.

Conservation efforts include restrictions on new lawns, a cash-for-grass program that pays water users to replace turf with desert landscaping, efficient appliances, and homebuilders placing a new emphasis on sustainability. In addition, all indoor water is recycled back to Lake Mead.

So the specter of the greenery in parks, along roads, and around public buildings drying up and blowing away seems to us a sort of doomsday scenario. A lot of smart people are working very hard to avoid it. But …