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Question of the Day - 19 March 2020

Q:

We all know that insurance is a bad bet in blackjack for basic strategy players. Taking even money when you have blackjack and the dealer has an ace is just an expedited version of insurance, so it's also obviously a bad bet. However, recently I've seen two different Las Vegas casinos offer even money on blackjack-vs.-ace on a 6-5 table! The first time, I figured it had to be a mistake by the dealer, but the second time was at a different casino in a different year (though, both were MLife casinos), so now I'm wondering if it's an institutional mistake on the part of the casino.

Under normal circumstances, taking $5 insurance with a $10 bet and a blackjack vs. a dealer ace, you win $10 on your insurance bet and push your hand if the dealer has a blackjack; you lose your $5 insurance and win $15 (3-2) if the dealer doesn't have blackjack. Either way it's a $10 net win, or even money. But on a 6-5 table, you should win $10 on your insurance bet and push your hand if the dealer has blackjack (a $10 net win).  But if the dealer doesn't have blackjack, you should lose your $5 insurance and only win $12 (6-5) on your hand if the dealer doesn't have blackjack, which is only a $7 net win. It seems that taking even money in this situation is "pulling one over" on the casino. Am I missing something?

A:

[Editor's Note: First, a little important business to attend to. In case anyone out there in Coronvirusville hasn't heard yet, on Tuesday Nevada governor Steve Sisolak ordered all non-essential businesses in Nevada to close for 30 days. This includes all casinos, bars, restaurants, hotels, health clubs, beauty salons, malls, etc. All gaming machines in the entire state were turned off as of 12:01 a.m. Wednesday morning. For the first time ever, Las Vegas shut down, though essential services and construction on the major projects in progress is as yet allowed to continue. At Huntington Press, we will continue to work to post information via LasVegasAdvisor.com and are monitoring messages and email, but have limited phone service.

As for today's question, we handed it off to Arnold Snyder.]

Most casinos don't offer even money on blackjacks in 6-5 games for exactly the reason that you describe. At a regular 3-2 table, even money is precisely what you would be paid regardless of whether or not the dealer has a blackjack. So it speeds up the game from the house perspective.

But in a 6-5 game, there would be a player advantage from taking even money if offered. I have no idea if it’s a dealer error to offer it, an “institutional mistake on the part of the casino” to offer it, or a decision by the casino to just give it to players who are smart enough to take it.

In the long run, offering even money on a 6-5 game takes away less than less than a tenth of a percent (0.1%) from the overall house edge on most 6-5 games, so it doesn't kill the house to allow it. Some casinos may allow it because players are used to it, like it, and it makes it feel more like a real BJ game. If you are playing a 6-5 game and even money is offered, take it.

There has long been a blackjack myth (in traditional 3-2 games) that taking even money on a blackjack should always be done, because “it’s the only bet you can’t lose.” Card counters understand that, in fact, you’ll win more in the long run if you don’t take even money unless the count is high enough to justify an insurance bet.

In a 6-5 game, however, if even money is offered, that myth becomes reality. Always take the even money. (Not that I would ever advise anyone other than a hole-card player to play in a 6-5 game.)

 

Why do casinos offer even money on 6-5 blackjack, when the player has the advantage?
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Comments

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  • gaattc2001 Mar-19-2020
    Six-to-Five Blackjack might also be playable...
    in a tournament, although I've never seen or heard of a tournament like that; or with a coupon, if the math worked out all right. I would probably refuse to play it even then, so as not to encourage the operators, and for the sake of image and self-esteem. 
    My cousin plays six-to-five in low-limit single-deck. I explained it all to him several times and finally gave up. At least he sets stop-losses, and frequently hits them.
    You can still find three-to-two off-strip, but generally Blackjack is a dying game these days. I've mostly switched over to poker tournaments, with the aid of a couple of Mr. Snyder's books.
    Cheers.

  • Mar-19-2020
    An exception
    It is a mathematical fact that, in the long run (if you can play thousands of hands), you should not take even money when you are playing 3-2 BJ. But there is an exception case in which I take the even money because there is no "long run": when you are playing a hand with a once-per-year match-play coupon, such as from LVA or ACG. If you bet $10, then taking even money will win you not $10 but $20. I'd consider myself to be a fool if I didn't take that profit.

  • Roy Furukawa Mar-19-2020
    6-5 BJ
    I wouldn't be caught dead, or dead drunk for that matter, at a 6-5 BJ table.

  • rokgpsman Mar-19-2020
    Oh well
    I never play 6-5 blackjack, which pretty means not playing at any Strip casino. But for those blackjack players that don't stray from the Strip for better games if they know about this 6-5 even-money quirk that's a bright spot to their game. But now that the cat is out of the bag it may not last, the casino managers have big ears and often find out about advantage play stuff online, then put an end to it.. Maybe not, could be it isn't an issue with them.