What's the Story on the Exotic New Crap Bets

As a craps player, I notice all the casinos now have on their tables “feature or bonus bets” such as the Fire Bet, All Small and Tall, Repeater Bet, among others. All I really know is that these bets have a very high casino vig, somewhere in the area of 20% to 25%. A big difference I've observed on many of these feature bets is that some of them you lose on both an initial come-out roll as well as a seven out. However, my experience is that only the Fire Bet is NOT lost on a come-out roll, only on a seven out. Just wondering how not losing on a come-out seven would affect the house edge on these other bets bets.

[Editor's Note: The best expert, perhaps in the whole world, to answer this question is, or course, the Wizard of Odds, Michael Shackleford. The new edition of his classic book, Gambling 102, will be available in the next month or so.]

The All, Tall, Small, and Repeater bets do indeed lose on any seven, including the come-out roll. To me, that seems consistent with the rules, as the goal is to roll certain numbers, sometimes multiple times, before a seven appears. Many crap bets are already like this, such as the place and hardway bets (although these can be turned off on come-out rolls upon request).

I suppose the originators of these new bets could have had a rule where come-out rolls don't count, but that would only make it more confusing to players. As a frequent consultant to game inventors, I would have advised against such a rule in the interest of simplicity, on which I'm always harping.

If you're asking about a rule where a come-out roll could be good, but not bad, for that player, that would require a lot of math to answer, so forgive me if I pass.

As for the Fire Bet, that requires rolling at least three distinct points before a seven-out. Since a seven on the come-out roll isn't a seven-out, that neither helps nor hurts the player.

That is my long answer. My short answer is to avoid all these new bets in craps and be done with it.

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Comments

Dave Jul-23-2019

Same either way

If there were a rule that ALL come out rolls don’t count, the edge on the All Tall Small and Repeater etc would remain exactly the same. 

While I agree that it *might* be more confusing, it would speed up the game. It might even encourage more action on those bets. I can’t be alone in my preference for the Fire Bet because of its uniqueness of being a single bet for the life of the shooter...

shadow520 Jul-23-2019

Not the same

Dave, I disagree. The odds of making small/tall/all before a seven are fairly easy to calculate. It's basic statistics. But to "disallow" some sevens (come out) would severely skew the odds into the players favor by turning losers into a no decision. I'm no math expert, but I did have stats in college and I agree with Mike, the math here to figure that is much more complicated than the simple permutations that is the current all/tall/small bet.

Matthew Maschler Jul-23-2019

Yes the same

The losers would not turn into a no decision.  You would not win or lose on that role.  As if there was no bet on the role.  So no change in odds.  It would be like there was not even a role.

Pat Higgins Jul-23-2019

Pat H

These feature bets should be avoided at all costs.  The house vig (advantage percentage) is, if I understand it correct) in the 20+ percentage---way too high to ever win in the long run.  I know it can be exciting when one hits but you will lose big time in the long run.  

I am in the process of doing an analysis concerning the STA craps feature bet.  In practice at home on my craps table, I have been keeping a record for about 2 months when I am playing with chips.   As I begin each practice session I make a $5 on the Small, Tall and All for a total bet of $15.  In 7 rolled--come out rolls and 7 out alike, I make my new $15 bet--each and every time.  I have hit the STA once, and either the Small or Tall a total of three times and to date, if I was rolling in a casino, I would be down some $2700.  I simply don't bet any of these sucker bets.  

The same is true for me at other table games offered at BJ, PaiGow, 3 card poker, etc.  Other players think I am crazy.

Dave Jul-23-2019

@Shadow520...

You missed an important point. 

Diss allow these pesky come out sevens means you’re also disallowing any other number on the come out.

O2bnVegas Jul-23-2019

tomorrow

Wow, Tomorrow's Question just begs for a reader poll!

shadow520 Jul-24-2019

@Dave

Yep. You're right there. And that point makes the diff. I wasn't considering the overall bet being "off" on the come out where it's no action.

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