Question of the Day - 05 June 2018

[Editor's Note: As we're wont to do, we handed this one off to Arnold Snyder, who, as you'll see, got a little exercised over it. We don't know about you, but for us, that's always fun to watch.]

You say, “The dealer busts about half of the time when showing a 5 or 6.” 

The whole thing comes down to your use of the adverb "about." To illustrate, I’ll tell you what. The next time you play this game, try to turn the tables and inform the dealer that, instead of betting that the dealer will bust, you want to bet that he won't. Ask the pit boss or casino manager or casino owner or whoever designed this side bet if you can reverse the bet, since it’s "about" a 50/50 proposition either way. Take your case to Gaming Control! Ha!

We need look no further than Peter Griffin’s Theory of Blackjack to figure this one out. On page 19, he shows that the percentage of times the dealer will bust when he has a 5 up card is 43%. With a 6 up card, it’s 42%. So, assuming this side bet pays even money (Shufflemaster has a variation called Bet the Bust 4-5-6, and we know it pays 1-to-1), it’s a real bad bet. 

Every 100 times you place this bet on the 5 or 6 up card, you'll win 42.5 times and lose 57.5 times. If you bet $1 per hand, the math looks like this:

+$42.50 – $57.50 = -$15

You’re giving the house 15% on this bet, so it’s one of the worst bets, ever, on a blackjack table.

By the way, that name, "EZ Bust Blackjack," is just perfect, because it will bust you so easy you won't even see it coming. Yet another cool innovation on the modern-day casino blackjack game.