I remember a promotion downtown at the Plaza many years ago. If you dined on the premises or went to a show, you got a blackjack coupon that made the first card you were dealt an ace. My question is what would be the expected return on your first hand in this situation? Was it as good a deal for the player as people thought? And I always wondered if they stopped this because it didn't pay off for the house.
Assuming you're playing standard blackjack rules where naturals pay 3-2 and your first card is an ace, you have a 52% edge. Hence, on a $10 bet, your expected win is $5.20. The ace is worth less on a 6-5 game, so you should take care to play it on a game with the standard payout, regardless of the number of decks (though you should play it anyway if your only choice is 6-5).
A 52% edge is enormous. Plus, it's what we call an AI bonus, which stands for "any idiot." With AI bonuses, even players with no skill at all (any idiot) can capture most of the positive EV. So yes, the casinos are certain to lose on that promotion, which is why you don't see it much anymore.
Note that the 52% advantage quoted here is a catch-all number. Several factors can affect the actual edge. In his article "Beyond Coupons," James Grosjean quotes 50.43% for using an ace coupon on a single-deck game with specified rules and 55.08% if the coupon is retained on pushes. For general purposes, 52% is the number most often used.
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Donzack
Dec-26-2024
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Bob Nelson
Dec-26-2024
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