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Question of the Day - 13 June 2019

Q:

The best blackjack rules include the dealer standing on soft 17, but it seems most casinos hit that total. What's the difference in odds of winning between standing and hitting with soft 17? And why is one better than the other?

A:

[Editor's note: This answer provided by blackjack Hall of Fame member Arnold Snyder. Arnold is also the author of our books The Blackjack Shuffle Tracker's Cookbook and Risk of Ruin.)

These days you almost have to play in games where the dealer hits soft 17, as most casinos have adopted this policy. But if you have a choice, playing where they stand is better.

Hitting soft 17 increases the house edge by 0.22%. Most players either don't realize this or simply don't care -- that extra edge sounds negligible. But putting it into perspective indicates otherwise.

Let's say you're a $10 bettor and you play 50 hands per hour. That's $500 in action, so the casino makes an additional $1.10 per hour off you now -- not insignificant.

There’s no simple way to explain why hitting soft 17 increases the house edge, except to say that computer simulations have determined conclusively that this is the case. Soft 17 is a bad hand that’s more likely to improve when taking hit cards. Interestingly, the casino is more likely to bust with this rule in place, but the times that the hand is improved to a winner for the house more than make up for the increased percentage of busts.

It’s worth noting that there are some variations to basic strategy when the dealer hits soft 17:

Double 11 against ace (instead of hit) Surrender 88 against ace (instead of split) Surrender 15 against ace (instead of hit) Surrender hard 17 against ace (instead of stand)

In Las Vegas, most of the time, the tables that have higher-denomination minimum bets stand on all 17s, while the lower-minimum tables hit soft 17s. The reason for this is that higher-limit players are often more knowledgeable gamblers and look for better odds on the games they play. At these higher-dollar amounts, the casino makes more money by virtue of the total action and doesn't need to take that extra 0.22% (at the risk of running off a big player who may walk across the street to get that 0.22% back at a competitor's game that stands on soft 17). In most cases, though, players are simply ignorant of the difference.

Hitting soft 17 is just one example of casinos trying to balance the conflicting imperatives of increasing their edge without alienating players and we’d call it a successful one. The latest -- and to date the boldest -- of such moves has been the revised payout on blackjacks from 3-2 to 6-5. Judging by the amount of correspondence we receive on the subject, a lot of our readers do notice and don’t like this change. And with good reason: A game with a 6-5 payoff on naturals increases the house edge about five times more than hitting soft 17. So while it's often acceptable to play at a blackjack table where the dealer hits soft 17, this can rarely be said for games where blackjacks pay 6-5.

No part of this answer may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, without the written permission of the publisher.

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Comments

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  • David Sabo Jun-13-2019
    SAY NO TO 6/5
    This is greed and the only way to stop it is to walk.  No run.  You are at a clip joint. 

  • Rick Sanchez Jun-13-2019
    But David
    6 is higher than 3 so it has to pay more. Duh....
    I have heard this at many tables and it was said with seriousness.

  • O2bnVegas Jun-13-2019
    Surrender
    I didn't know of surrender 88 to dealer ace instead of split, or hard 17 to ace instead of stand.  Thank you!
    
    What about 15 or 16 to dealer 9, 10 or ace?

  • Anthony Curtis Jun-13-2019
    Surrender basic strategy
    The standard basic strategy is to surrender hard 15 vs. dealer 10 and hard 16 vs. 9, 10, A. There are exceptions that you don't really need to worry about, but if you want to know them, the best presentation of basic strategies for almost every conceivable combination of game conditions is in the book The Theory of Blackjack by Peter Griffin.
    
    

  • Kevin Lewis Jun-13-2019
    Honey, is your seventeen soft or hard?
    Funny, I had kind of the opposite reaction when I first learned about blackjack. 0.22% seems HUGE when you consider that the dealer doesn't get A6 all that often. The EV improvement for the dealer in hitting the hand vs. standing must be large.

  • O2bnVegas Jun-13-2019
    Thanks again
    Anthony, this is consistent with what I had been told/read somewhere.  Very glad to hear it from you.
    
    I don't often give unsolicited advice at a table, but more than once when someone had an "all in" tall stack of chips, holding hard 16 to dealer high card, I've gently suggested "you can surrender and keep half of those chips."  Mostly this advice has been ignored, either seeming to not know what I'm talking about (and not bothering to ask), or just hoping to beat the odds.  Mostly all is lost.  JMHO, surrender is a very good call in a situation like that.  Keep half to play another day (or stay in the game).

  • Kevin Rough Jun-13-2019
    Play in Pennsylvania
    Blackjack rules in Pennsylvania are coded by the state gaming agency.  All casinos must stop on all 17s.  All blackjacks must pay 3-2.  I play much less blackjack in Vegas now that I have better games at home.

  • Kevin Lewis Jun-13-2019
    Surrender or die
    Actually, Candy, it's only a tiny bit better than hitting in that situation (which is, in turn, only a tiny bit better than standing). If you decide not to surrender and instead, play the hand out and you happen to win, you wind up with FOUR TIMES as many chips as you would have had had you surrendered. Hard 16 vs. 10 is indeed the proper BS play, but it's not a very big EV gain at all.