What Were the Odds on Someone Making a Hole in One at the Masters Today

What were the odds on someone making a hole-in-one at the Masters today, April 8?

[Editor's Note: This answer is provided by Logan Fields, author of our book 20/20 Sports Betting, whose longest and most detailed chapter is on sports betting at golf.]

The odds of a hole-in-one occurring in a typical 4-day event on the PGA tour are roughly 50/50. So that would put the odds at roughly 1- in-8 of a hole-in-one occurring on any particular day. In other words, if you have two four-day tournaments, that would be eight days of play, so a hole-in one will likely happen on one of those days (the-1-in 8, or roughly a 13% chance).

But the Masters is different. At the Masters, hole locations are regularly placed at the bottom of ridges, so balls will naturally funnel down close to the hole. Thus, rather than needing a precise shot to achieve a hole-in-one, if you land the ball in a certain area near the hole, the ball will take the slope and have a chance of going in.

For proof, check out the hole-in-one made by Stewart Cink on April 8, as cited in the question. The ball landed a good 20 feet away, but then caught the slope and funneled down into the cup for the hole-in-one.

You can see that aces at Augusta are kind of cheap, occurring in far greater numbers than in typical PGA tournaments. This is done for the simple reason of exciting the patrons at the tournament and the viewers at home.

Of course, cheap aces aren't lost on the oddsmakers, who are well aware of the nuances of Augusta National and the pin placements chosen for the Masters every year. Despite a field that is much smaller than a typical tour event, the chance of a hole-in-one during the tournament is much greater. In fact, the odds are strongly in favor of a hole-in-one occurring during the tournament, and an ace has occurred in six of the past seven Masters.

The day of the tournament is also a factor, as a pin placement used on Masters Sundays at hole #16 is notorious for surrendering aces. Most Masters aces over the last 25 years have occurred on Sundays at hole #16.

You asked about Friday of this year's tournament. I would put the odds at approximately 1-in-5 for an ace on Masters Friday, which represents a greater likelihood of one occurring than your run-of-the-mill PGA tour stop, even though the number of players in the field is much smaller at Augusta.

In summary, Augusta National is rigged for aces, oddsmakers know this, and they price the hole-in-one prop accordingly.

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Comments

Kevin Lewis Apr-21-2022

It's not a hole, it's a funnel

Gee, why not just dig a trench sloping downward to the hole and line it with concrete? You know, like miniature golf? It would definitely excite the fans. (And I'll have you know that MOI has a career record of 22 aces at the Mickey Mouse Putt Putt course across the street from Disneyland.)

This sham reminds me of the NBA All-Star game, where the players agree not to even pretend to defend each other and the final score is always 495-493. Kind of a farce.

KennyA Apr-21-2022

Kevin,Kevin

And if you hit the ball a little too far off it can roll completely off the green. Not all shots funnel toward the cup. Only very accurate shots to the small area that is conducive to reaching the hole, may result in that elusive hole-in-one. Don't be so naive as to belittle the best golfers in the world.

Lotel Apr-21-2022

Wrong

I would disagree a hole in one at the Masters is "cheap, or done for the simple reason of exciting the patrons". the greens are set up to be high risk , high rewarded. If you hit a great shot into a very small area you have a chance  at hole in one. If your shot is off a bit it will roll off into the  water or  off the green. There is a safe area on the green to hit into if you don't to take the risk and just get par.  So it is up to the player play safe or risk.

Logan Fields Apr-21-2022

OK, maybe cheap wasn't the right word

Announcer Gary McCord received a ban from Augusta in 1994 for suggesting on the air that Augusta used bikini wax to get the greens so slick. He hasn't been allowed back since. God help me if one of the green jackets takes notice of my using "cheap" and "Augusta National" in the same sentence. No doubt my fate would be even worse than Mccord's, as he was only joking. And for that matter, probably a good idea for Kevin Lewis to come clean as well, as comparing Augusta greens to Mickey Mouse Putt-Putt is the ultimate sin.   

So call it what you will, but when I see a hole surrender three holes-in-one in the span of 24 golfers, as it did in 2016, the word "funnel" comes to mind before "well-executed" golf shot!

Ray Apr-21-2022

The day DOES matter

What the answer (and comments) doesn't address are some things.  The 16th is the only hole on the course that has an unusual number of aces. Pin placements tend to be tougher on the weekend. There are twice as many players plying on Thursday and Friday when the placements are usually easier, The books will take ALL of that into consideration when calculating odds on a hole-in-one. And it still takes luck! The most gifted shotmaker in the game, Tiger Woods, has zero holes in one at the Masters. Nor did Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus and many other golfing greats, so it still takes luck on top of the good shot.

Question of the Day - 21 April 2022

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