Question of the Day - 24 August 2019

We received a number of similar questions, but held off with this answer to them. We knew Anthony Curtis would dissect Jeopardy James' last move in detail from a tournament-player's perspective in the July Las Vegas Advisor (Holzhauer lost on June 3), and we almost always let plenty of time pass before reprinting from an issue, so subscribers get the full benefit of the information. (For non-subscribers, as a reminder, the cost of an online subscription is all of $37, $3.08 per month, and comes with our Member Rewards Book with 130-plus coupons that, if you use only a few of the most valuable ones, pays for the entire subscription cost.)

Anyway, here's A.C.'s full analysis of James Holzhauer's final Final Jeopardy bet from the July LVA. 

When James Holzhauer finally lost to Emma Boettcher on “Jeopardy!”, conspiracy theorists quickly pointed to his “abnormal” bet on the Final Jeopardy question. Holzhauer had tended to bet big on the last question of each game, so his bet of only $1,399 raised red flags and led to speculation that he’d thrown the game, perhaps to keep from breaking the all-time win record from which he was less than $100,000 away. However, “Jeopardy!” betting involves strategies similar to a gambling tournament, especially Final Jeopardy, so tournament experts knew that the dissenters had it wrong.

While James’ bet looked odd, it was a good play given the circumstances. Here are the particulars. “Bankroll” is the scores going into Final Jeopardy (the third player was Jay Sexton).

                    Bankroll       Bet               Final Total

Emma           $26,600        $20,201        $46,801

James           $23,400        $1,399          $24,799

Jay               $11,000        $6,000          $17,000

James made the assumption that Emma would “cover him high,” meaning she’d bet enough to cover him doubling up and that’s what she did. Had James bet his entire $23,400, he could have gone to $46,800. Emma’s bet would take her to $46,801. Hence, James opted to make a bet that “locked out” Jay — if James lost $1,399 and Jay doubled up to $22,000, James would beat Jay by $1 (but Emma would also have to lose for him to win). It was a good bet, but was it the best? Not necessarily.

There’s a good case to be made against $1,399, as that bet makes it possible for James to be locked out by Emma. Had she chosen to bet small ($1,800 or less), she’d have been in a can’t-lose position. “But she wouldn’t bet small,” you say. We disagree. There are two reasons she might. The first is it’s her first time on the show and she’s in a high-pressure spot. Maybe she doesn’t come up with the lock-out play or thinks it’s correct to bet the difference between herself and James. Second, in a he-knows-that-I-know-that-he-knows scenario, she could purposely bet small, figuring that James will make the bet that gives her the lock. James can avoid this by betting something like $10,000. This introduces the slight chance of a win/lose with Jay, but James wins for sure if he answers correctly and Emma doesn’t and it gives him a chance even if all three miss.

It’s complicated stuff, the sort of thing high-level tournament players calculate on final hands. Given James’ high confidence in his prediction of Emma’s bet, there can be little argument with his strategy. What really cost him was failing to have the lead going into the final hand. Take a lesson: When playing in a tournament, being in the lead on the final hand is hugely important. And taking into account the high probability of these players answering the Final Jeopardy question correctly, in this contest it becomes paramount. Had James been in position, he’d still be playing.

As for the final tally, James Holzhauer won 32 games and $2,464,216. Both fell short of Ken Jennings’ totals, but he set just about every other record in the book: the three highest winning amounts, the 16 most prolific performances in the show's 35 seasons and 23 of the top 27 overall with an average of $77,000 in winnings, and answering correctly 97% of the time. He’s now nationally known and a superstar in Vegas, where his every engagement, including playing in two WSOP events (with a staked entry) is news. And as for “back-end” — the term for the benefits that accrue to winners of prestigious contests — he’s a professional sports bettor at a time when sports betting is front and center. We haven’t heard the last of him.