How Did Phil Ivey Win So Much at baccarat?

A question has bothered me for a long time and I'm finally submitting it, if only to get it off my mind. It's about baccarat and Phil Ivey's controversial multimillion-dollar wins at Caesars Atlantic City and Crockford's in London. In a simple guessing game like baccarat, what could Ivey and his partner do, even sorting the edges, to get so an advantage on the house?

Good question, though Ivey won his $10.1 million at Borgata in Atlantic City, not Caesars.

Although card counting is useless at baccarat, the individual cards do have different values for predicting whether a hand will win or lose.

A somewhat simplified explanation is that if you know a 7, 8, or 9 will be dealt to a hand, with no other information, that hand would be favored to win. If you know any other card will be dealt to a hand, with no other information, that hand would be more likely to lose.

Because of the way baccarat is dealt, if you know the first card out of the shoe will be a 7, 8, or 9, you'd also know the player would be the favorite to win that hand, since the first card dealt on a round goes to the player. If you know any other card will be the first card out of the shoe, the player hand would be more likely to lose, so a banker bet would be favored.

As you note in the question, Phil Ivey used an old blackjack technique called "edge sorting." Casino cards aren't always cut symmetrically. If you look at the pattern on the back of a card, you’ll sometimes see that the edge on the right side of the card differs slightly from the edge on the left side of the card.

If all of the 7s, 8s, and 9s are turned one way, and the other cards are turned the opposite way, you’ll be able to bet player or banker based on the edge of the first card to be dealt on a new round, since you know that card will go to the player hand.

Since players cannot touch the cards in baccarat, Ivey asked the dealer to turn the cards for him. The casino manager okayed Ivey’s unusual request and instructed the dealer to turn the cards however Ivey wanted them turned. So he was able to gain a major edge over the game.

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Comments

Kevin Lewis Jan-09-2023

He cheated...and they were idiots

Ivey's scam should never have worked, since if the Borg folks had half a brain, they would have asked themselves why he made that card-turning "special request" and figured it out in two minutes. But apparently the suits were 1) salivating at the thought of getting huge action (without asking themselves why) and 2) distracted, apparently, by Ivey's eye-candy accomplice, a stunning Asian woman. Amazing how a little smile-and-jiggle can turn men's brains to cottage cheese.

There's no gray area and no logical or legal dispute here. Ivey cheated. It's no different than if you or I somehow hypnotized the dealer at blackjack to deal both his cards face up. Granted, that they actually agreed to his request was beyond stupid. If I were the judge, I'd make Ivey forfeit his winnings and fine the Borg $100 million for rank stupidity. Whoever was in charge there shouldn't be allowed to run a lemonade stand.

Cheating, greed, tits, and stupidity--that's America!

Ray Jan-09-2023

Still incomprehensible

I know that big players are allowed to make unusual requests, but actually sorting the cards? Do they consistently shuffle so that the direction doesn't change? Do they re-sort before each shuffle? As Kevin says, not only did he cheat, but they helped him cheat. He shouldn't have been able to keep his winnings, but the casino(s) shouldn't be allowed to recover the money either.

Lotel Jan-09-2023

ordered to return the money

Did he have too return the money?  Interesting story. sounds like a judge ordered him to return the money.  there is a lot more to the story .  Ivey was able to get the cards he wanted to use. Strange they let him.  The Borgata sued Ivey after learning that a casino in London was withholding his winnings from high-stakes  you can read some more about it here. 
https://www.nj.com/atlantic/2016/12/poker_pro_phil_ivey_ordered_to_repay_10m_to_atlantic_city_casino.html

Diamonddog2801 Jan-09-2023

Unbelievable.

It was really that simple? Kudos to Phil Ivey...but, yeah, he cheated. The fact that no one in the casino questioned his request is incredible of course unless...... they were in on it?!

Lotel Jan-09-2023

Scam or stupid casino

the more I read about it it was a scam or incompetent  casino . why would they allow this go on for days and months. In setting up the sometimes days-long Baccarat games at the Borgata, Ivey demanded that Sun sit with him at the table, that only one deck of purple Gemaco Borgata playing cards be used for all games, and that it be shuffled using an automated shuffling device, according to court documents.

Stewart Ethier Jan-09-2023

Not cheating

The legal issues are complicated and are discussed in this law review article: 
https://harvardjsel.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2021/02/Carr.pdf
But even Crockford's acknowledged that Ivey did not cheat.

And Kevin, Ivey's partner, Kelly Sun, was more than just eye candy.  It was her scheme in the first place and she brought in Ivey to allow her to make bigger bets.  See
https://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/the-baccarat-machine-19176

Rick Sanchez Jan-09-2023

No cheating

He didn't cheat just like Stewart said. This to me would be like card counting in BJ. He noticed a pattern and was able to take advantage before the house noticed. The fault is all on the casinos.

Dorothy Kahhan Jan-09-2023

Not convinced it's cheating

If someone notices a flaw in a casino game and exploits it, whether it's slots, video poker, blackjack, craps, or baccarat,  can that be considered cheating? I don't think so... If that were the case, you'd have to accept the casino's view that card counters are cheaters because they're exploiting a "flaw" in the game that allows them to predict when favorable cards may be coming out of the deck. At least in Atlantic City, the courts have ruled that not only is it not cheating, but the casinos also can't ban these advantage players.

So sorry guys, what Ivy and Sun did is not cheating. They were merely exploiting a "flaw" in the cards that allowed them to gain an advantage.

Srgntpep Jan-09-2023

I'm with the last two

I mean, Kevin's right with his very first statement (it never should have worked) but...he asked them to do it that way, and they did.  You can call it 'cheating' all you want, but if he makes a request and the casino says okay then it's pretty cut and dried to me.  They could have changed their mind at any time--while game play was going on.  To call it cheating after the fact seems a little silly to me.

Doozey Jan-09-2023

explanation is scam

Why would he explain his edge? Having the cards arranged a certain way is only a misdirect to cover the real scam.

Donzack Jan-09-2023

Facts

There are no facts, only interpretation.

Ray Jan-09-2023

difference in BJ

The difference between BJ counting and "edge sorting" is that in BJ you know how many high or low cards remain but you still don't know what's next. In this scheme you know that the actual next card gives you an advantage. What he was doing was playing with a marked deck. It was as if he said "Let's play with MY deck"...and they DID!

Mark Jan-10-2023

Cheating?

lol, how is this ever cheating?  This is like saying if you played blackjack, and you asked the dealer to tell you their hole card, and they did.  Is that cheating?  No, it's incompetent casino workers/management.

Jan-10-2023

more info

There was no mention that he had a Mandarin assistant and asked for a Mandarin dealer, and MGM Borgata thought that was "not unusal" ???

steve crouse Jan-12-2023

Cheating? Ha!

I wouldn't call it cheating.
Anthony would probably call it "advantage playing".
In other words, taking advantage of something within the casino rules that gives one an "advantage"
In this case, taking advantage of a stupid casino.

Question of the Day - 09 January 2023

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