Question of the Day - 15 June 2021

[Editor's Note: This question is answered by Logan Fields, author of our recent 20/20 Sports Betting -- Think Like a Pro. Logan is a golf fanatic, both playing and betting, so he's the obvious choice to field this QoD. Anyone interested in golf betting would be wise to read 20/20 Sports Betting.]

A golfer withdrawing in the middle of a tournament is nothing unusual. In fact, believe it or not, a total of five golfers, including Jon Rahm, on Saturday on June 5, withdrew (WD) from the Memorial at various stages of the tournament. So this certainly didn't catch sports books by surprise. And rules on how to handle these situations are clearly posted at every book.

In head-to-head matchups, the winner of the matchup is the golfer who completes the most holes. Since Rahm dropped out after 54 holes, he would be a loser to all golfers he was matched up against who completed all 4 rounds. I myself had Rahm over Rory Mcllroy in a matchup at Memorial. Rahm had an insurmountable 17-stroke lead over Mcllroy after 54 holes, yet my bet was graded a loser. A tough pill to swallow, but WDs happen practically every week, so bad beats like this come with the territory. I certainly didn't expect my funds to be returned for such a cruel twist of fate, and sure enough, they weren't. But just in case, I double-checked minutes ago ... Still nothing.

An even tougher pill to swallow would be if you wagered on Rahm to win the tournament, as pre-tourney he had 12-1 odds. He was probably 90% (or more) to win on Sunday with such a commanding lead, and likely would have enjoyed a pleasant stroll through the park in his final round. But it wasn't meant to be and anyone who bet Rahm to win the tournament was just bum out of luck, as he didn't win.   

Yet there has been a massive amount of publicity in recent days on Rahm bets being refunded or even paid as if he won the tournament. The key word in the preceding sentence being, as you rightly surmised, "publicity."

Although nothing in the rules states bettors on Rahm should be paid anything, many have been. Rahm bettors at FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, William Hill, FoxBet, and PointsBet were paid as if he had, in fact, won the tournament. One lucky William Hill bettor won $36,000 for his $3k wager on Rahm to win.

FOXBet said its decision amounted to a "good-will gesture" to their customers. Fan Duel labeled it a "bad-beat payout."

Rahm bettors weren't so lucky everywhere, though. Vegas stalwarts SuperBook and Circa stuck to their rules and didn't pay anything to Rahm bettors, not wishing to go anywhere near this Pandora's Box.

In summary, sportsbooks owed nothing to Rahm bettors, but many paid anyway in acts of self-promotion.

And speaking of which, I wrote quite a lot about golfer WDs in new book 20/20 Sports Betting. Golfer withdraws aren't always so unpredictable and there are occasions when the possibility of WDs is a valuable tool in handicapping player matchups.