Question of the Day - 29 April 2019

[Editor's Note: Yesterday, we gave you the Nevada Gaming Control Board and Wizard of Odds answers to this question. Today, we follow up with the response by John Robison, author of our book Slot Experts Guide to Playing Slots.]

The answer to the question depends on what you mean by "odds." Do you mean the probability of hitting the progressive jackpot or the long-term payback on the machine?

In "Question of the Day Family Feud," we asked three people what odds meant. Results: Probability: 2, Payback: 1. (I voted for payback.)

Let's start with the probability of hitting the progressive jackpot. Nevada's regulations are a bit complicated, because they have to deal 
with machines of different denominations competing for the same progressive. There are three situations: 1) All machines are the same 
denomination, require the same bet amount to be eligible for the progressive, and have the same probability of hitting the progressive. 
2) The machines are of different denominations, but all require the same bet amount for the progressive and have the same probability of hitting the progressive. And 3) The machines have different bet amounts to be eligible for the progressive and the probability of hitting the progressive is proportional to the bet amount required.

For example, every Megabucks machine I've seen, dollar or penny, has required a $3 bet to be eligible for the jackpot. IGT, however, has some five-coin Megabucks machines that promise increased progressive odds at the maximum bet on its website.

Many Wheel of Fortune machines have a plaque with this enigmatic statement on it: "The odds of winning the Wheel of Fortune progressive jackpot times the maximum wager is equivalent for all Wheel of Fortune progressive machines."

In other words, the probability of hitting the big one is proportional to the bet required to be eligible for it. So if you and the dollar 
player next to you are competing for the same Wheel of Fortune progressive (the IGT jackpots site lists five different Wheel of Fortune 
progressives in Nevada), your neighbor betting $3 per spin is four times likelier to have his picture taken with the big check than you playing three quarters per spin.

Turning to payback, no regulation  requires the paybacks on the machines to be the same. As long as the odds of hitting the progressive follow the regulations, the operator (IGT) is free to have any payback that is above the statutory minimum of 75% on any machine.

In reality, we don't have to worry about casino location. IGT produces only one version of each game theme and denomination in its Wide-Area Progressive line of machines.

To sum up, location doesn't matter, but bet amount does.

I can play my old favorite, Emerald Sevens, downtown, on the Strip, in a locals casino, and even at the airport and enjoy the same lousy probability of hitting the progressive and the same lousy payback at each location.