What Are the Odds Of Hitting Megabucks?

What are the odds of hitting Megabucks?

In 1999, one of our slot experts, John Robison (author of The Slot Expert's Guide to Playing the Slots), saw a Megabucks PAR sheet, which delineates the payout percentages of slot machines to ensure that they live up to their end of the payback-percentage bargain. It showed that each reel on a three-reel Megabucks machine has 368 virtual stops, which put the chances of hitting the Megabucks jackpot at 1 out of 49,836,032.

Using that probability, Michael "Wizard of Odds" Shackleford estimated that the average point at which Megabucks will hit is about $15.2 million.

In 2006, Megabucks manufacturer IGT ran ads saying that that jackpot was "statistically overdue" when the jackpot went over $14 million. This was close enough to Shackleford's estimate for it to be considered mostly accurate.

The last time the Megabucks reset amount was raised was in 2005 (from $7 million to $10 million). Since the "overdue" ads ran a year later and the reset amount hasn't changed since then, it looks to us like the chances of hitting Megabucks are still 1 in just under 50 million.

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Comments

Kevin Lewis Sep-27-2021

Payback percentage?

I thought you would mention the fact that Megabucks machines have a lower payback percentage than a drool-encrusted penny machine in a bar in Coyote Scat, Nevada. I seem to remember the number 86%.

I rarely see these machines being played any more. In order to finance the big jackpot, almost every spin is a loser, so it's not a fun game to play.

Also, not mentioned is the fact that the amount you get is an annuity, and the optional lump sum payment is much less. Then, of course, you have to feed the tax monsters. Upshot is, you "win" that so-called $14 million, you'll be lucky to walk away with $3 million. What a joke.

That Don Guy Sep-27-2021

More on payback percentage

The Nevada Gaming Control Board used to show the percentage profit made just from Megabucks machines, but it stopped doing this in early 2020. For the last full-year report (2019), the payback percentage was about 87%.

Also note that all anyone knows for certain about the probability of hitting the jackpot is, it is less than 1 in 100 million, as the gaming regulations say that if the odds are 100 million to 1 or higher, the value has to be displayed on the machine.

VegasVic Sep-27-2021

Good info

Kevin/Don, good info, thanks. I don't play slots so I don't know much about paybacks.

jay Sep-27-2021

Odds

My understanding is that the Nevada Gaming board certifies a game by running multiple simulations of 10 million spins and that the stated payback percentage must be met within some very minute variances.

The %% payback are not manipulated in anyway its just that there are sufficient number of winning combinations that statistically the machine will pay back to the stated % across a large number of spins. At no time is there any guarantee that a top award is "due" or will be hit. 

Its like flipping a coin do it 100 times and you might get a 70/30 split, flip it 10mm times and you get closer to a statistically 50/50 split. There is no guarantee that a "head" will ever be flipped, however statistically you should get some. 

There was one machine at the MGM that had a progressive. It went 20+ years before it hit the top award. 

I play BlackJack, but at the end of each day - I dump $20 into the Megabucks, I play till its $0 or $80 and cash out...

Nellisned Sep-27-2021

Lions Share?

That progressive over at the MGM was called The Lions Share. Like the rest of you I do not play slots. But I made an exception on that machine. Good info here. Thanks.

Jeffrey Small Sep-27-2021

So, there still is a chance...

To quote the movie, "Dumb and Dumber", "There still is a chance!" Since the odds in Powerball of winning the big jackpot are 1/292,201,338 and only about half of the money that is bet is returned to the players, the rest goes to the state, Megabucks does not sound that bad in comparison!

Question of the Day - 27 September 2021

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