My understanding is that the line opened for the Ohio State-Michigan football game at Ohio State giving 14 points. Now Ohio State is giving only 7-1/2. How often does this happen? And why? (All the Michigan money is pouring in?). Finally, it looks like this would be one of those rare opportunities to “middle” a football game. I know the lines move in basketball, which presents middle opportunities, but how often does that happen on a major football game?
[Editor's Note: This question is answered by Blair Rodman, author of our upcoming title, All About Sports Betting.]
Middle opportunities occur in football, as well as basketball and other sports, but a 6.5-point middle would indeed be rare for a standard football game.
However, for the Ohio State-Michigan contest, the opening line was a look-ahead that, I believe, was posted in June.
The posting of lines on major games far in advance of the scheduled game date is a relatively new offering at some books, when a lot of information about the strength of the teams is unknown, so there are often significant differences in the line by game time. By the week of the game in question, with much more information available about Michigan and Ohio State, the line opened and settled at around 7. If someone was prescient enough to take Michigan +14, they would have had a great bet and middle opportunity. However, the line could as easily have moved the other way by game time, to say to +21, leaving the +14 bettor with a bad bet.
Lines in all sports move for a number of reasons. Only a few sports books actually originate betting lines. They post their best determination of the line, then allow super-sharp bettors to bet into it at lower limits to help identify any weaknesses, and move the lines accordingly. These early bettors may be presented with middling opportunities that the later gamblers won’t get -- and even if they do, they might not take them, as I explain later. When the lines have settled, other "copycat" books take those lines for their books.
After settled lines are posted at all books, lines can move enough to create middle opportunities, due to weather considerations, injuries unknown when the line was posted, and other factors. A strategy employed by some big bettors is line manipulation, which has become more and more common.
The master of this was Billy Walters, the best and most successful sports bettor ever. One of his tactics was to find ways to get "followers" (bettors looking to jump on his plays) to help him move the line in his favor. He did this by making relatively small bets on the opposite side of the line he really wanted (called "phony bets"), thus misleading followers in various ways as to his intention.
I knew lots of bettors who tried to follow Billy and swore they were getting his real plays. It was a daily subject of conjecture among avid sports bettors. But I don’t think anyone knew his real play until game time and maybe not even then.
Once the line moved, he took it back with his standard huge bets, not only getting a middle on his phony bets, but getting a better line on his desired bet. He actually showed this on a "60 Minutes" interview in 2011, where he said, looking at a game he liked, “We're gonna work on this one a little bit.” Then he added, “We’re gonna phony up a game.”
The most famous middle in sports-betting history occurred in Super Bowl XIII, the 1979 game between the Steelers and Cowboys. The game opened with the Steelers a 3.5-point favorite. Heavy Steelers action moved the line to 4.5, at which point Cowboy money came pouring in. When the game ended with the Steelers winning 35-31, the books had to pay both the bettors who laid the -3.5 and took the +4.5 -- and took a major bath!
The biggest middle I’ve ever seen was an opportunity my betting group had. On opening day of the 1990 NBA season, I went to the Stardust lottery, stopping off to check out one specific game. New Denver Nugget coach Paul Westhead had been hired after a college-coaching stint at Loyola Marymount, where he was known for his run-and-gun style. No one knew how this style would translate to the NBA, but my handicapper felt it would be a scoring fest and wanted to bet the over at almost any number. The total came out at around 250, extremely high for the NBA. The number was moving up rapidly at the lottery, but I got bets in at something like 252, 256, and 260. The total closed at over 300, giving us a 50-plus-point middle if we wanted, which we didn't. The game flew over, with a final score of 162-158!
Why we didn’t take the middle is important to understand. When you make a second bet to create a middle situation, you’re simply making a bet, and paying juice, at the current number. Your original bet, such as our bets at the lottery, are profitable bets and you’re giving up that edge, unless you think the second bet also has positive expectation. If we had taken the middle and bet the Denver game under, instead of a great win, we would have simply lost the juice. Likewise if the bettor holding the +14 ticket on Michigan had laid 7.5 on Ohio St., which lost the game by 15!
You should have a good reason, such as bankroll considerations, to give up a good situation and take a middle by making a bet with a negative expectation.
 |
Kevin Lewis
Dec-16-2021
|
