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Question of the Day - 06 June 2020

Q:

Do you think the local Las Vegas market can handle another large locals casino being built? And if so, what part of the valley would be a growing area?

A:

VitalVegas.com blogger Scott Roeben bucks conventional wisdom, exclaiming, “If I had to pick a place, I'd vote Lake Las Vegas! That place is dead and it needs a casino again. It's sort of a cart before the horse thing, because they can't really justify it until there's business, but won't have the business until they open and market it better than last time. Still, that would make it worth the trip for me.”

Considering that the trip in question is a 17-mile drive, any new casino will probably have to be a lot more special than the "amenity" ones that have opened (and closed) out at isolated Lake Las Vegas.

Stephen Miller, director of the Center for Business & Economic Research at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas, offers an answer almost as long as his job title: “One needs to identify the fast-growing area in terms of population. Start with the Southwest and Mountain Edge.

John Restrepo of RCG Economics also focuses first on the southwest valley, where residential development is picking up and no new casino has been built to harvest from it.

That brings up the elephant in the middle of the room, Station Casinos’ decades-in-abeyance Durango Station, intended for the southwestern corner of the beltway. Although plans have been filed with Clark County, that was years ago and now Restrepo hears rumors that the land (like much other Station real estate) is being shopped — which could entail (we speculate) removal of the gaming entitlement. He thinks there’s also a possibility for casino development somewhere between M Resort and Green Valley Ranch. “There’s a bit of growth,” Restrepo says, but perhaps enough to be satisfied by existing gaming supply.

Applied Analysis economist Jeremy Aguero opines that it’s a complex question of where a new casino could go, relative to growth. He says there’s been “a lot of conversation about the northwest valley,” but that Cascade, Inspirada, and the southwest could all be in the mix, despite being served by gaming product already.

Currently, much of the demand for gaming in the southwest valley is being sated by Golden Entertainment, which is mopping it up with video-poker-driven brands like P.T.’s Pub and Sierra Gold. Likewise, Station has eschewed new development for over a decade in favor of assimilating off-brands like Renata’s, Wildfire, and Lake Mead Lounge. 

Is there enough demand to justify a major new locals-oriented casino? Recent history says no. There hasn’t been one since Aliante Station (now owned by Boyd Gaming), built in 2008 at a staggering cost of $662 million. Station thought so little of the property’s prospects that it forfeited it during a subsequent bankruptcy proceeding (opting to buy back Green Valley Ranch instead), changing hands a time or two before winding up with Boyd. The latter appears satisfied with Aliante’s performance, better than when the north beltway was a no-man’s land, but the level of capital required to build a state-of-the-art locals casino may no longer justify the investment.

Aguero disagrees and firmly believes that the big locals casino isn’t obsolete and points to some of the reinvestment he has seen in major locals properties.

As Station and Boyd (which also snapped up the two Cannery casinos) have shown, it may be more economical, post-Aliante, to be a buyer than a builder. Casino-underserved areas appear to be in for a long wait, especially in these uncertain times. 

 

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Comments

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  • Jackie Jun-06-2020
    Buy land @ 146 and 15
    Southwest is played out as far as new development, North, East or West is done, only mountains or Paiute land left. Straight South is the futers but not enough development right now but buying cheap land there now will make you a multi-millionaire withen 10 years.

  • Kevin Lewis Jun-06-2020
    Mommy, mommy, we need a casino
    I think it's hilarious to talk as if an area in suburban Vegas that is more than three miles from a casino is somehow deprived. Schools, parks, businesses, churches...but we have no casino! I ain't living there!
    
    I remember that when Summerlin was being built, one of the highly touted features was that it would NOT have casinos. Then Rampart and Suncoast sprang up, technically each twenty yards "outside" Summerlin.
    
    The real estate lady showed us a map that plotted the distance to local casinos from various properties, in a group of concentric circles, like a Cold War map showing nuclear weapon blast radii. She said she had to show us that, by law.
    
    Stations learned with Aliante that the "if you build it, they will come" model didn't work very well. Its isolation doomed it. I doubt that they have any appetite for repeating that mistake in the equally unattractive and isolated southwest Valley. Let's face it, Vegas ran out of good places to build housing twenty years ago.
    
    

  • Jerry Patey Jun-06-2020
    Vegas in general 
    Vegas will be lucky to survive the corona scam or false flag operation much less build a huge casino  long distance. Anyone who would invest in this environment is a fool. I predicted this before election. If necessary shadow gov will destroy America in order to prevent Trumps election. I hope a few out there realize shadow gov controls country. I am a physician. The corona virus is comparable to flu epidemic. Pandemic??? Look at a  real pandemic. Who will make vegas safe if police are Eliminated  think !!!! 

  • Gene Brown Jun-06-2020
    Flipped into Politics!
    C'mom, Doc! What's your comment on the subject? I'm a slow learner!

  • clifftill22 Jun-06-2020
    NO SMOKING
    Why no mention of NO SMOKING at the Park MGM...was it fake news..?

  • steve crouse Jun-06-2020
    Great!
    A new casino, whether supported by the numbers, or not , is always a good thing for the gamblers.
    Competition is always good.

  • Jane Sanidad Jun-06-2020
    question of the day
    how do I sign up for the daily question of the day email?

  • Deke Castleman Jun-06-2020
    QoD email list
    Jane -- At the very bottom of the home page in the middle under the weather, you'll see the sign-up box. Click the purple button and sign up for QoD and three other features. Thanks for asking.

  • rokgpsman Jun-06-2020
    Wishful thinking...
    Wishful thinking, but these days I’m dreamin’ of better days.
    
    I'd like to see a visionary and risk-taker (like Steve Wynn in the 1980's) who would build a nice casino resort that broke away from the corporate thinking present in most of the properties now on the Strip where they feel they have to wring out every last dollar a customer has. We need someone that would have the courage and finances to build a nice-sized but not over-the-top resort where the emphasis would be on the customer and have things done in a way so people would want to return over and over. Years ago I used to think of The Orleans as that way.  Maybe such a place on the south Strip not far from the airport would get more than enough business to make it worthwhile, just by being different than the usual treatment customers get now at Strip properties. People like to visit any new place and if their first visit made an impression they would return. 
    

  • rokgpsman Jun-06-2020
    Wishful thinking - part 2
    This new place would have hotel rooms without resort fees and no parking fees anywhere on the property, including valet. There’d be an upscale restaurant and a couple of moderate-priced restaurants where you could eat and feel like you got a bargain, they’d have daily meal specials. Endeavor to make people feel like they got a good deal, this encourages people to stay at the property longer instead of hopping from one place to another. Make a big emphasis about the lack of extra fees at this place in all advertising, be like Southwest Airlines is with their no-baggage fees policy. Get more people to use the spa, giveaway a free spa visit to every woman that checks into the hotel or accumulates a modest level of players card points. A happy woman will bring her husband or boyfriend back to the place. Stuff like that goes a long way to cultivating a return customer. No need to visit Vegas and see 10 different resorts, make the place where you are staying so great you don’t want to leave.

  • rokgpsman Jun-06-2020
    Wishful thinking - part 3
    It would have a good slot club with nice cash back rewards and a decent amount of points you can earn by playing in the casino, then use the points for stuff like restaurants and hotel rooms. Have the machines set to payoff like they used to, I want to hear jackpot bells and people shrieking with excitement often. Doesn’t have to be giant jackpots, even lower level ones generate excitement. Put soft drink and coffee stations in the casino where you can serve yourself, no more strange fingers on your glass before it is handed to you and let the cocktail servers just deal with the alcohol type drinks. For some types of drinks use sturdy paper cups like Starbucks does instead of glasses that have to be collected and washed. That would cut down on the clutter and reduce how many empty germy glasses that the cocktail servers encounter when making their rounds, then they deliver drinks to customers with the same hands.

  • rokgpsman Jun-06-2020
    Wishful thinking - part 4
    Have bars where the bartender doesn’t look disgustedly at you on a tip less than $5. No nightclubs that bring in the rowdy crowd, there’s enough of them at other places for those folks, just have a lounge with a local band and a showroom for a concert.  Do all this and more, people that want to play the tables and machines longer just need an incentive and it doesn’t have to cost a fortune for the casino to giveaway smaller things often enough to make players happy. Have some Megabucks machines for the dreamers but set the other machines so there are frequent winners in the $100 to $500 range. Even a 2% casino hold on machines can be profitable if you have lots of people playing. 

  • rokgpsman Jun-06-2020
    Wishful thinking - part 5
    Build the resort so you divide the total casino space into two parts, so half the casino is on opposite ends of the building. Designate the casino space at one end as non-smoking and the other end with smoking, with the same machines and table games on each end. That way everyone gets to pick the place they want to play. Put the lounge, restaurants, hotel checkin and hotel elevators in the middle of the resort to make it easy to get to and come down from your room and be in the middle, no long walks to where you want to go. Have 2 pools not too close to each other, one for adults only that just has low volume music for a relaxing stay at the pool. The hotel room service food would come from one of the moderate restaurants, with the same prices as what the menu inside the restaurant has, just add $5 plus tip for room delivery. 

  • rokgpsman Jun-06-2020
    Wishful thinking - part 6
    Have a large buffet dining room but just have a few food stations like American, Mexican, Italian and Asian, with a server at each station putting the food onto your clean plate, like cafeteria-style places do, no more handling the same tongs and serving spoons as the stranger in front of you. Salads could already be made in individual bowls covered with cling-wrap like they do at McDonald’s and Fazoli’s. Offer checkin and checkout via online or direct connect thru in-house wifi, pick up your room keycard from kiosk machines in the lobby. Allow early checkin without an extra fee, as soon as there is a clean room available it gets assigned. 

  • rokgpsman Jun-06-2020
    Wishful thinking - part 7
    Allow ride-share like Uber and Lyft at the same main entrance as cabs, don’t stick ride-share at the rear of the resort. Cab drivers and ride-share drivers would have to scan their badge when coming onto the resort property to pickup someone so the resort could check drivers records for complaints, traffic citations and arrest warrants. Bad drivers would get flagged and not allowed to pickup resort passengers, there’s plenty of good drivers so this wouldn’t disrupt customer service. Plus customers would like this safety check, women especially would feel safer getting into a car alone with a male driver. 

  • Martin Shedlin Jun-06-2020
    good grief
    The thing about online is you get to see really scary people you wouldn't otherwise come into contact with. OTOH, it's at a safe distance, so there's that.
    
    I hope "Jerry Patey" is an imposter and not really a doctor and that he just threw in a fake degree to give his paranoid absurd conspiracy non-science lie the credibility that it badly needs but will never have no matter how many degrees the imposter pretends to own. If he really is a doctor it's scary to know that a doctor you may wind up relying on in an ER or someplace could be a total whack job. Yikes.

  • Bud Ackley Jun-06-2020
    start your OWN blog
    There is a reason that LVA puts a 1000 word limit on comments. Once in a while, someone who feels they have more to say than can be expressed in 1000 characters will make a second post. No biggie.
    
    However, getting around the reasonable limit imposed by LVA by posting SEVEN lengthy comments each of which looks to have reached the 1000 character limit is abusive and spammy and demonstrates disrespect and contempt for LVA and its readers.

  • rokgpsman Jun-08-2020
    Yikes
    Yep - that's me, Spammy. It was done after the next QoD came out, there weren't going to be any more serious comments on this one, so no one cares. If you don't like reading it you can skip or turn the page, that's what I do. Sounds like you've been stuck at home too long and need some fresh air. And this is where I blog, stay tuned friend and turn that frown upside down, grab a beer and a fig newton.

  • rokgpsman Jun-08-2020
    Yikes - part 2
    PS- 
    The posting limit is 7,000 characters, not 1,000.
    (limit of 7 comments at 1,000 character each).