Do you think the local Las Vegas market can handle another large locals casino being built? And if so, what part of the valley would be a growing area?
VitalVegas.com blogger Scott Roeben bucks conventional wisdom, exclaiming, “If I had to pick a place, I'd vote Lake Las Vegas! That place is dead and it needs a casino again. It's sort of a cart before the horse thing, because they can't really justify it until there's business, but won't have the business until they open and market it better than last time. Still, that would make it worth the trip for me.”
Considering that the trip in question is a 17-mile drive, any new casino will probably have to be a lot more special than the "amenity" ones that have opened (and closed) out at isolated Lake Las Vegas.
Stephen Miller, director of the Center for Business & Economic Research at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas, offers an answer almost as long as his job title: “One needs to identify the fast-growing area in terms of population. Start with the Southwest and Mountain Edge.
John Restrepo of RCG Economics also focuses first on the southwest valley, where residential development is picking up and no new casino has been built to harvest from it.
That brings up the elephant in the middle of the room, Station Casinos’ decades-in-abeyance Durango Station, intended for the southwestern corner of the beltway. Although plans have been filed with Clark County, that was years ago and now Restrepo hears rumors that the land (like much other Station real estate) is being shopped — which could entail (we speculate) removal of the gaming entitlement. He thinks there’s also a possibility for casino development somewhere between M Resort and Green Valley Ranch. “There’s a bit of growth,” Restrepo says, but perhaps enough to be satisfied by existing gaming supply.
Applied Analysis economist Jeremy Aguero opines that it’s a complex question of where a new casino could go, relative to growth. He says there’s been “a lot of conversation about the northwest valley,” but that Cascade, Inspirada, and the southwest could all be in the mix, despite being served by gaming product already.
Currently, much of the demand for gaming in the southwest valley is being sated by Golden Entertainment, which is mopping it up with video-poker-driven brands like P.T.’s Pub and Sierra Gold. Likewise, Station has eschewed new development for over a decade in favor of assimilating off-brands like Renata’s, Wildfire, and Lake Mead Lounge.
Is there enough demand to justify a major new locals-oriented casino? Recent history says no. There hasn’t been one since Aliante Station (now owned by Boyd Gaming), built in 2008 at a staggering cost of $662 million. Station thought so little of the property’s prospects that it forfeited it during a subsequent bankruptcy proceeding (opting to buy back Green Valley Ranch instead), changing hands a time or two before winding up with Boyd. The latter appears satisfied with Aliante’s performance, better than when the north beltway was a no-man’s land, but the level of capital required to build a state-of-the-art locals casino may no longer justify the investment.
Aguero disagrees and firmly believes that the big locals casino isn’t obsolete and points to some of the reinvestment he has seen in major locals properties.
As Station and Boyd (which also snapped up the two Cannery casinos) have shown, it may be more economical, post-Aliante, to be a buyer than a builder. Casino-underserved areas appear to be in for a long wait, especially in these uncertain times.
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